This blog started out as a companion piece to my book, Musings from the Christian Left (excerpts of which can be found in the July 2004 link) and to support a planned radio show. Now, its simply a long term writing project from a Christian Left Libertarian perspective (meaning I often argue for liberty within the (Catholic) Church, rather than liberty because the church takes care of a conservative view of morality.

Monday, May 19, 2008

The Democratic Race

In what is now ancient news, the AP reported last week that even with Florida and Michigan, Senator Clinton is behind in the delegate count, albeit in a closer race. Let's do the math.

First, the pledged delegates:

Obama 1596, Clinton 1439

Then, add the 17 Edwards delegates to the Obama total.

Obama 1613, Clinton 1439

Give Florida all its delegates and count its primary, but give Obama the Edwards delegates.

Obama 1693, Clinton 1544

Next, honor the Michigan party proposal to give Clinton 69 and Obama 59.

Obama 1752, Clinton 1613

As you can see, including these delegations only closes the gap by 35 votes.

Now add the Super Delegates:

Obama 2045, Clinton 1885

Adding back Florida and Michigan in this way makes the number needed 2182.

For Hillary Clinton, that means she must pick up 297 delegates compared to 137 for Obama. If Obama wins Oregon tomorrow and wins even a quarter of the Kentucky vote, the math is pretty insurmountable - especially if the Superdelegates decide enough is enough.

Obama has already stated he will not declare victory on Wednesday. He doesn't have to. We can count. While the Superdelegates can always change their mind until August, they likely won't, especially given the likely victory by Obama in the pledged delegate race. It will be up to the Senator from New York to state the obvious.

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