Pelosi, Trump, Clinton and Nixon

The debate about impeachment is centered on two things: what is Bob Barr doing and what will Pelosi do about impeachment? I have talked about Barr - he is doing what Pelosi is doing - seeing if Mike Pence is implicated or not. She won't say it, nor will the media - since it is not a story without proof and journalistic and political ethics do not allow speculation on possible criminality about an innocent man - which has never stopped me before.

Everyone thinks Pelosi is drawing an analogy to the Clinton impeachment. She might be. Trump is like Clinton as a philanderer, but he is also like Nixon, a tax cheat and a crook who obstructs justice and abuses power. In 1999, no one in the Democratic Senate Caucus told Clinton to resign. Almost the entire caucus pushed Nixon out. For that reason, going the distance on Clinton may or may not have helped Bush win (although that was mostly because Gore put all his eggs in a basked controlled by John Ellis Bush, the candidates smart brother and because Gore could not win his home state).

Getting Nixon out may have helped Ford almost win, even after the pardon - although that was likely because Ford could not win Ohio. Congress still went deeply for the Democrats in 1974, which probably lanced the boil for Ford to come close. There is no doubt that, unless Democratic voters stay home because of cowardice, that the GOP has any chance of keeping the Senate or the White House, especially if Trump is the candidate. A liberal Republican with an economic plan could successfully primary the SOB and it would be fun for anyone but Trump to see him have to debate someone with nothing left to lose (see fiscalequity.blogspot.com to see why I should run - but you must give me money to do so).

It could be that the GOP got rid of Nixon because a trial would have given Ford no chance at all. AS it was, Nixon supporters still felt he might have been railroaded - as the Trump base feels now. At trial would have changed that. Without a Senate trial, Ford came a hair's breath away from winning, which meant Teddy Kennedy would have won in 1980 and there would have been no Reagan tax cuts. Pelosi should go forward for that reason, even though it is likely that Grassley will convince Trump to leave the same way Goldwater did with Nixon, for the good of the Party. This may put Pence into the White House - unless he is implicated too, which means Pelosi would be President,.

Pelosi loves being Speaker and she knows GOP voters hate her so much that she could not be President in her own right. The only thing would hate more than becoming president is for Pence to become president - so she waits. Even worse would be for Grassley to become President - but there is no chance of that unless she vacates her seat and Trump resigns before another speaker is chosen to become POTUS in her place. Trump getting a second term would be worse still, although the decimation of the GOP might kill it this time and turn the natural fault line in the Democratic Party into a permanent rift, especially if the sane wing of the GOP joins them for good. A progressive Republican could keep the GOP alive and cost the Democrats the AOC wing.

If Pence is guilty and Pelosi does become POTUS (which the GOP would arrange if he is), then her VP nominee would be sure to win in 2020. This is why McConnell will never let her nominee be confirmed and why she would never let Pence's nominee for VP be confirmed either. This is why the most importer person in Washington right now is Chuck Schumer. If he can get five vulnerable GOP Senators to switch, McConnell cannot block a VP vote as Leader. There are too many vulnerable Republicans for him to get 41 votes if not in the majority.

That is a lot of balls in the air (including mine if I primary Trump).