Monday, April 20, 2020

Why Flatten the Curve?

Again, I'm no Trump fan. Pence needs to remove him and, until then, the White House Press Corps need to not ask him gotcha questions.

Flattening the curve makes sense as part of triage, which is how to deal with a medical crisis.

Some people will die, regardless of whether the curve is flattened or not. Their immune systems are badly compromised because they are never allowed to encounter germs). A flat curve means they die in the second wave. Putting them in vents prolongs their agony.

On the other side are younger people who will most likely get sick or not get sick but will develop immunity. Healthcare workers in this age group should get tested for immunity so that they don't need PPE. They are the people who can safely treat the vulnerable.

The curve must be flattened to make sure that those in the middle who get extremely sick can get treated when that happens. If the severe (not total) infection rate is low enough to not overwhelm medical resources, curve flattening is not necessary. Until we know that this is the case, continued social distance is essential.

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