Thursday, November 07, 2024

About the Court and the numbering of presidents


Remember the case last summer where the presumption of fact by the government was overturned in environmental law? Not such a bad thing in a Trump second term. Trial Courts now have to decide on facts put forward by environmentalist lawyers. Which was the old standard from when I was taking Administrative Law in Grad School. Every regulation will be settled in Court in a way that could not have been done previous to las summer's ruling. At the time, I said this. Now I can say - I told you so!

The next two justices to go will be Alito and Thomas. They will be replaced with more modern law school graduates and professors. The clock will not be rolled back on social issues. Indeed, the reason affirmative action plans keep getting swatted down is because they are crap. 

Go with random selection of the middle group of applicants (not sure stars or sure failures) and dare people not to sue if legacies are left out of the random pool.

The other "don't be afraid" thing is the child tax credit. It is supported bipartisanly and it needs to be passed during the lame duck. We can even add a sweetener for the Vice President by putting at least some of what she campaigned on into the bill. Assuming she is not the President at some point between now and January 20th.

So Trump is likely to be 48, not 47. Vance will then be 49 due to actuarial factors. From 2001 to 2016, we had two presidents. From 2016 to 2032, we will almost assuredly we will likely have six - unless Vance is elected in his own right in 2028. I am counting Trump twice, because that is how we number regimes.

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