SARSCoV2 story to NIH

I am a year older today. I finally got smart enough to remember that I know how to find the emails of the actual doctors who do research on COVID rather than trying to get CNN or MSNBC to cover the issue as I see it, or hoping they notice it on social media. Silly me. Here is what I wrote today - which hopefully one of them will see by Monday on their device or home computer.

I had the serious symptoms of the virus in March, starting on March 10th. While I had some SARS symptoms, these were controlled by Vestril (which was a component of Marax, which worked for me when I had asthma from ages 11 in 1974 until it was discontinued) and my Ventolin inhaler.

My main symptoms were extreme fatigue, which lasted from that date for two weeks - the first week so extreme that making a sandwich and eating it forced me to lay down on the couch to work up the strength to go back to bed. The second week, I was simply very week. At the end of this period, the congestion started to come up and one 12 hour dose of Muscinex handled it without further symptoms.

My asthma had gone into remission from 1996, when I had deep tissue lung massage and two sessions of craniosacral therapy. Every 5 or so years, CST stops recurrence. in 2012, my Osteopath, Dr. Jennifer Lee of Steinmetz Medical Associates (703) 671-2700. The Healing Tree Alexandria reset me after symptoms resumed in the mid 2010s. In 2016, I was infected with the flu (just after my flu shot at Kaiser, where I am now a patient) and have needed an inhaler since. I suspect my lungs were damaged with that flu. Indeed, after COVID, I experienced a degree of symptom release as antibodies were created, although I still have some periodic symptoms.

Before SARS symptoms, I had an asymptomatic week. Literally 7 days. This followed a one week period of heavy sneezes, which I originally thought were seasonal allergies, but quickly felt like a very bad cold. During that period, I helped my ex-lover move out of her (formerly our) apartment. Three weeks later, she had the same COVID symptoms I had. My other friend who I had seen 2 weeks before did too. I was likely exposed to the precursor nasal symptoms some time in mid February.

Let me emphasize this. The SARS symptoms I had in mid-March were likely the result of an exposure to aerosol droplets in either a group therapy meeting or the Alexandria Public Library, where I was a daily public computer user (or maybe Starbucks nearby).

How do you contract trace a cold that turn to SARS one month later? No one was masking in February, but I doubt it would have helped. People sneeze when they eat, especially hot food. No restaurant in this nation should be open right now. Bars that serve food should not serve food. As an ex-drunk, I can assure you that alcohol stops sneezes. It is why it is an ingredient in cold medicine.

This disease likely spreads as people with colds or "seasonal allergies" sneeze on or near their friends in private space, are fine for a week while their friends get "allergies" because CDC, NIH and the media have stressed that this is a deadly disease and not a cold (to not minimize perceptions). Had they known to look for symptoms, they could have been quarantined, including removing them from families from the first heavy sneeze, with families quarantining in place for 2 weeks following probably exposure. A hard quarantine, rather than a mask would have stopped the virus in March, save for the CDC public info campaign not mentioning colds.No one likes to think they have a deadly virus, so people want to believe they have "seasonal allergies" rather than possibly being doomed.

In July, I tested negative for Covid 19, but positive for PAN COVID, which required delaying my colonoscopy. At the time of the test, symptoms began again, but only cold and minor lung symptoms. No fatigue, no SARS. I asked an associate in health care policy from the Clinton days, Dr. Michael Halasy, whether there this could be a non-COVID cold. He said ti was likely a cold from another Bat Virus. In 12 days, the cold symptoms resolved (although I was only told to quarantine for 10).

Having had both COVID-19 and another COVID, I suspect that, for lack of a better term, COVID-20 is what is circulating in areas where COVID 19 has already burned through most patients over 45 who were vulnerable because they are no longer around children (who, as recent studies have shown) are little immunity factories for all colds, which I met my suspicions in March when people were dying, but children were rarely getting seriously ill.

Given the start of serious symptoms in most of the areas which had shut down previously (being sneezed on by others who have been sneezed on is definitely a geographic phenomenon) before the virus had actually arrived. A regional shutdown, if not a global one, may stop further spread or a second wave.

How could you have missed this? Patients who arrive at death's door do not give medical histories, especially if they are not asked the right questions (again, no one wants to give the perception that this is a cold). Also, those of us who actually were sick, but not in need of hospitalization did not see our doctors either. Panic ruled. Doctors followed CDC guidance, which did not include asking about cold symptoms.

The current list of symptoms (flu, fever, aches) likely show the beginnings of immunity. Loss of taste, runny nose and especially sneezing - i.e. cold symptoms would have and are still a more accurate test for the disease than a nasal swab (although these are better than checking temperature or asking about abdominal, flu or asthma symptoms).

This is not some cryto-spreader, is not ebola, does not require PPE to treat during the SARS phase (my roommate had no symptoms at all when I was sick in March, although he is only 44, so his cold immunity was likely in effect, although he still had symptoms with me in July, when I tested positive for another cold virus).

Schools can open (as you know from recent studies on how they are immunity factories - indeed, being in close contact with children is likely a symptom preventative, not a super spreader. Spraying is not needed either. Studies have shown this, but an agenda to make life be as infection free as a hospital ward - hand washing, anti-biotic cleaners, is likely counter-evolutionary. If the vaccine doubles as a cure or the common cold, or we try to hard to stop disease spread, immune systems will weaken and the next pandemic will kill everyone.

As virologists, you know about memory cells staying around after antibody densities have failed.

There has been so much ass-covering and concern about a consistent message that the world is living in fear - which is not the purpose of science, Masks may help spread in public indoor settings - but confining people initial symptoms would have stopped the spread much more effectively. This is why people are dying and will continue to do so, regardless of any public health protections.

Everyone who is vulnerable in the US has already encountered sneezes from their friends and co-workers. It is literally too late in the US, although the developing world may have a shot. Of course, less hygiene likely gives better immunity, as well as living with children, so they may never get sick.

Donald Trump is a buffoon who deserved to lose because of his bipolar affect (grandiosity, hypersexuality, out of control finances) rather than his not sticking to the script. The script was wrong. He was likely extrapolating from what he was told about SARS1, which did magically disappear when its hosts died out quickly. SARS2 will do the same, just as the vaccine is ready for mass inoculation. My bet is that having had the serious symptoms is the best vaccine of all.

Regarding the clinical trials. They were useless because you did not rule out people who had heavy nasal symptoms. If you tested a random sample of people with the same symptemology as I, and 95% of those who got sick experienced, you would likely find that we are also as immune as those who had the vaccines.

COVID-19 has just arrived in the West and Midwest, which is where people are actually hospitalized and are already beginning to die. I estimate that, before this is over, some towns will be decimated, with the remaining population forced to move due to lack of population density. There will be COVID ghost towns in the heartland. The total death toll will be 400,000, if not more.

I base my estimate by extrapolating New York fatality levels by June, which were 150 per 100,000. South Dakota now has a similar death rate.

I was the SAS Analyst from Westat in 1996-97, working on the Mothers and Infants Cohort Study and programming the original data configuration for the related international meta-analysis. I learned a bit about epidemiology (I am a fast learner) which is necessary to program in that area. I seem to remember a Dr. Fauci was part of the effort. Perhaps you know him.

I hold a Master of Public Administration in Policy Analysis. Same tools for estimation and hypothesis testing, as well as doctoral work in policy where we took measurement, which includes in depth study of errors in measurement and research bias.

The question is, what will you do with these data? I would hope that you quickly gather subjects who have survived the serious symptoms, get medical histories of the natural history of the virus going back a month before symptoms - focusing on nasal symptoms. Also, if you confirm my experience and analysis - slow vaccine production way down - or change who gets it, The elderly need it. Family practice doctors need it (and their staffs), nursing home staff, first line workers, people who have vaped THC (who have popcorn lung and are likely not among the long lived anyway - any cold will kill them) and people over 40 who have not gotten sick.

Anything further is ass covering, not good medicine.

I am attaching my analysis which predicts 400,000 dead, which I conducted last August, on a state by state basis extrapolating NY death rates. I have not verified with data since then - and the predicted rates from that time may be higher than recent experience in the South, but the possible current second wave among the vulnerable who did not get it the first time, but already have been exposed now, may eventually verify my model. I wish it would not, but the die is cast.