Tuesday, October 03, 2023

I lost the lottery

If you play the lottery, one of two things can happen. You win, and if you did not win, you lose.

Did the kids in school win? Officially, if you believe the propaganda that the money goes to education. It could be true if it went to local school districts directly.

It doesn't.

So who won?

Rich people, whose taxes are not increased because the lottery makes money.

Bond holders. They invest money and get tax free returns. At least their money goes to schools.

Workers? They lost big time. When taxes are too low on the bosses, there is less of a tax penalty for lowering wages and benefits than if taxes were higher. 

When taxes are higher, the government gets the benefit of any savings imposed in workers. Because workers are better off when their pay is not cut, they don't need benefits.

When taxes are lower, low wage workers are more likely to need benefits. They are also more likely to play. So they lose twice.

Someone has to win eventually. Then they become rich and, for their riches, everyone wants a piece. The taxman wins too, but not as much because tax rates are lower for rich people because of the lottery.

Let's do a thought experiment. What if you could get an app that would play every combination for you?

Sounds expensive.

What if it arranged for financing?

Then, if you win, you can pay all your debts.

Why? Because you would have to declare bankruptcy.

Unless you are the only one with the app, everyone who plays using it splits the pot. The amount you borrowed does not go down if the pot is shared.

If you declare bankruptcy to share the debt, whomever lent you the money will have to eat the debt. Unless you borrowed from the government.

Why? You cannot discharge debt you owe them. 

Worse, if you get private finance, this is a joke that is funny once. Very quickly, whomever made those loans would ask Congress to make them nondischargeable. Just like student debt.

Student debt is another form of gambling. You hope you can beat the odds, graduate, and make more than you owe. Including capitalized interest from when you cannot pay. The house wins again - but you may not be able to buy one. This is why school should be. Maybe the lottery should fund college.

Of course, if the government loans you the money, you and everyone else will simply not pay, or the government could give you a payment plan for partial forgiveness.

Sounds like taxes. But the poor would pay because the rich are smart enough not to play the lottery. Because they don't like losing. They will let you do that.

So go ahead and play. I warn you, though. You will almost certainly keep losing. 

Especially to the rich.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home