Trump's margins and official acts

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Trump has fallen out of the race. His lawyers phoned in their response to the evidence attachment - and were right to do so as it was a nothing burger.  He is probably not going to make a deal before election day - or plead incompetent to stand trial. After? He's be crazy not to. 

The question is how badly he will lose. Likely voter samples are made using the last presidential election. Not a good move. The correct way to predict are to look at new registrations and the votes received by competitors in the primaries. This year, we only have to look at Republicans. After Haley dropped out, she still got at least 12% of the vote on average, before she got twice that. Apply THAT percentage in the primary to the 2020 GOP vote in each state. Add the number of no-Trumpers to the Harris total, along with new registrants for each party.

Assume Walz picks up the upper Midwest and mountain states. 

If there is any kind of reverse bandwagon effect, with Republican voters who are dispirited staying home and you come up against a possible 50 state plus DC landslide. Then Trump needs to decide whether to quit and put the GOP into crisis before the election or stay in and do so after.

Going back to his criminal case in DC. Because the filing last week was a nothing burger, we have no idea whether motive will be included in Trump's trial - that motive being hiding the official acts having to do with Putin (if he had known they were immune, he would have left the District quietly and given the Archives all his papers).

The only way these dealings were not official is if there was a quid pro quo on Russian funding of the Defend the House PAC in 2018. If there was, it was bribery - even if the acts were official. Regardless, the main question Trump's Russia acts highlighted was the extent to which foreign policy can be criminalized. I talk about this at

 https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2022/12/what-trump-was-hiding.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2022/09/the-special-master-and-ukraine.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2022/03/donny-and-vlad.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2021/10/trumpism-is-putinism.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2020/08/why-world-hates-king-donald.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2020/07/regarding-trump-and-stone.html

To restate from the July 2020:

Allowing Russia a zone of influence near its borders (a Monroe Doctrine, if you will) is not an idea originating with Trump. Is his presidential discretion wide enough to pursue such a policy, regardless of past doctrine?  This is another way of asking whether we wish to criminalize American foreign policy?.... 

.... Regardless, we must still address the issue of the criminality of the White House foreign policy.

Schiff should have followed the money trail, which in the Parnas and Fruman case has shown starts in Moscow, likely leads to Rudi and is alleged to fund the Trump Super PAC (thus benefiting much of the Senate impeachment jury). Let us hope this is not being saved as an October surprise. If McConnell moves Trump out of the way, it won't be of much use in going after Pence, who seems to have been mostly above the fray.

If McConnell fails to act, investigations must go on, which brings us back to Pandora and her box. How shall any Putin-Trump connection be played? Is it corruption or discretion. So far, only the corruption angle has been advanced. This has not worked with the GOP Senate or the electorate. If Trump is a traitor, it should be examined, but this will have implications for future presidents, including a President Schiff.

The question of whether Bin Laden was assassinated rather than being captured has criminal implications. Others have raised the question of the targeting of an American citizen who was part of Al Queda in the Arab Peninsula. Most come down on the side of presidential discretion. If we criminalize foreign policy, could it boomerang on our best president since Ike?

In my opinion, we need to open the box. Corruption is non-starter. It will not convince anyone in the Trump orbit that he did anything wrong. Unless Trump is pursued as a traitor - which I argue that he is - and the point is proven by a future DeutcheBank data dump on the Intelligence Committee - the nation will take a long time to heal. Not all Republican Trump supporters are his "fine people" who defend the Lost Cause. Continuing with Trump's criminality must lead to a knockout blow or it will be perceived as yet more partisanship, even if this means walking on the slippery slope.