What will Haley do if Trump drops out?

Trump lawyers, possibly with House GOP lawyers, have until one week from 5 pm Thursday to file a brief blocking the release of evidence by Smith in DC trial. If they cite jury pool concerns, they may win. If they expand the redactions, they may succeed - especially if Smith agrees as a matter of courtesy, If they let Trump approach guide their filing, then on Friday of next week, there will be an evidence data dump.

Trump could stop the dump by starting negotiations to plead guilty. They will only last as long as they make an honest effort - which is doubtful. If Smith or Trump agree on terms, data dump will not occur. Evidence will be held until and unless it is used for other trials - but only evidence for those cases, plus any testimony Trump provides.

Then the question is whether Haley seeks or agrees to take over for Trump for November - assuming that the Republican National Committee choses her over Vance. Vance may bring home Haley's never Trumpers. Haley has a better chance. This is not a hard question to find out and pollsters should be looking.

The participants in the GOP primaries in Florida and Texas are a matter of public record. Survey them all and ask who voted for Haley. Ask those who did whether they will vote for Trump, Vance or Haley in November. The list of new registrants may or may not be public. If they are, ask them too.

Forget the other polls. This is the correct measure to see how Texas, and the entire election, will turn out. 

Getting the names from Texas may take between an hour or a day, depending on staff resources. There is no timeframe required to make the calls. The time takes what it takes - this is not a sample of current opinion - it is a population census or a random estimate of voters whose minds have been made up. Also ask these people how they would vote if Vance or Haley was the nominee.

Then ask Nikki if she will run, based on the result. Or ask her before you do the poll. The important question is "what will she do?" Someone needs to ask her - first quietly - then on a hot mike. #nikkihaley #jdvance #elections2024