Mueller's End Game

Mueller is close to completing his work. Indeed, his evidence list seems to already have been delivered to House Judiciary. If not, whatever he does deliver to them, in what Jill Wine Banks calls a roadmap from her days in the Office of the Nixon Special Prosecutor, will be a product of the Mueller Grand Jury and as such is SECRET. The Mueller mandate is more like the Nixon era than the Starr Independent Counsel Report. That statute has expired.

Under the special Cousel rules, the report does include a list of indictments, at least four of which are sealed. This list may or may not include the cases spun out to SDNY.

It will also disclose the answer to the question of whether a sitting President can be and whether this one will be indicted. I suspect the decision has already been made and may pre-date Robert Barr, although his relationship with Mueller makes it likely that Barr will back Mueller over Trump.

If no one is indicting Trump or his children, then the Attorney General will inform Trump and not mention them.

Trump is an unindicted co-conspirator in the SDNY prosecutions, so that is very unlikely, although Trump's inability to cope with bad news likely blinds him to the possibility. An interesting question is whether Mueller knows who wrote the anonymous story about subverting Trump from within the White House and whether they have spoken to Trump. If this is actually happening it is a constitutional crisis, to say the least

The flap about sentencing Flynn may be a diversion, as well as the Speaker's remarks on impeachment. The real unanswered question is what Flynn said about Pence and what he has told Mueller. Unlike Trump, if Pence was involved and implicated, he likely will resign, but not right away.

If Trump's kids are mow under sealed indictment, it will be included in the Mueller Report to A.G. Barr. At that point, things will happen quickly.

Mueller and Barr are smart enough not to indict the Trump children and give Trump a chance to immediately pardon them, especially if Trump is indicted too or if there is probable cause to arrest him.

There is absolutely no legal bar on arresting a sitting President (if there is, show it to us). Doing so is easy. The entire Trump family is under Secret Service protective custody. They are also a law enforcement agency, especially on financial crimes. An email from Judge Jackson's clerk to the protective detail is all it takes for Trump to go from protectee to prisoner. (Yes, I am repeating myself, but the update was necessary.)

Any arrest of Trump will happen in a coordinated manner. Everything will happen at exactly the same time. If Pence is in the loop, (and he would have to be) then as soon as Trump is arrested, the the Vice President will convene the Cabinet (except those being indicted) and declare Trump disabled (at which point, any sealed indictments against Trump and Pence can be published.

My guess is that Pence would be cooperative at that point and resign with no jail time, making Pelosi acting President. Once he realizes that he is caught, Trump will resign and he and his children will face justice, especially the ones who lied to Congress or the FBI. Even if Trump makes a Federal deal, New York State will jail them and Trump.

I cannot imagine that the Speaker has been kept out of the loop. They would never just spring the presidency on her and putting Biden in the Speaker's chair ahead of time would give the whole thing away. It cannot happen simultaneously without risking putting Chuck Grassley in the White House. (He is worse than Pence). 

If this is the case, the recent remarks on impeachment were a feint as part of a larger plot, in which case I owe her an apology for yesterday's post. If so, then I must say "Well played, Madam President."