Focus on Budget and Debt by Bruce Bartlett
Steve Bell seems to know more than Bill Gross. This will have echos of House Democrats rolling Gingrich to pass Clinton's budget priorities.
The Ryan roadmap ignores the politics of 2012, not so much in terms of the GOP losing its own agenda, which it will, but in terms of how the Senate is likely to turn out. Even though the GOP needs 13 of the 23 Democrat seats, a few of which are open, it only takes a look at how many open seats it has and the likelihood that a Tea Party challenger will drive at least five of them into the arms of the Democrats. Indeed, Senator Snowe may find it in her interest to switch, and may take Collins and Murkowski with her for company. In Arizona, if Gabby Giffords can do a press conference, she can get Kyl's seat for the asking. One would think that a Texas Senate seat is safely Republican, but it is open and the Tea Party is likely to run a red meat, anti-immigration candidate. Sharon Angle has announced plans to consider a run for Ensign's seat. Nuff said. Finally, if Scott Brown goes to far left, he gets a Tea Party challenge. Too far right and he is beatable by a Democrat. The center may not hold for him. Finally, if McConnell does compromise on the budget, he could be Tea Partied too. Even if he wins, he is no Rand Paul.
The GOP needs to make their best deal now. They are delusional if they think they can make a better one in 2013.
Indeed, they may not survive the month. Compromise could lead to a potential palace coup. Then the only question is whether Boehner stays and fights or resigns in favor of Cantor. The prospect of Cantor (or worse, Pence) in the Speaker's chair may prompt either a Boehner-Pelosi or a Boehner-Hoyer compromise, with revenge meted out against anyone who sought the Speaker's resignation.
