Thursday, February 18, 2021

What shall become of Qs in Congress and Citizen Trump

 It is worse than anyone has said, although the stuff should have hit the fan while he was president, just to prove that no one is above the law. If it were not for the pardon power and its likely abuse, it likely would have happened before election day and we would have been better for it. There would have been no movement to stop the steal and no insurrection. 

As it is, the arrest of the leaders of the Insurrection will be uncovered, one level at a time. The leaders of the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers and others have been or will soon be rounded up. Unless Trump lied about not giving them pardons if he could not get one, they have no reason not to name everyone involved, from Congress to the Trump family.

Let's speculate about what would have happened had insurrectionists had not backed off once fired upon as members of the House and Senate were seeking shelter. Those supporting the rule of law would have been detained or killed while a rump House and Senate - or one under threat - would have rejected enough electors to give Trump the victory he wanted. One shot literally saved the day.

Had the plan succeeded, the rule of law would have stopped the attempted coup. Trump would have been arrested, as would the conspirators in the House and Senate, with any Senators killed immediately replaced by their Governors and surviving House members operating by consent until special elections were held. A new President pro Tempore would be selected once the Senate was reconstituted and would become President if there were no surviving House members not in the coup, in which case the Speaker would be President until Biden and Harris took office.

There is no other rational for the Insurrection. They were not merely out to make a political statement. Anyone in Congress who conspired with the it should be tried and declared unable to serve. At the very least, the Ethics Committee must begin investigating. Also, anyone who has taken the Q Oath should be considered ineligible for office, with a special election called for to replace them. Q partisans have been very public about declaring the fealty, likely including members of Congress. This is not as hard to do as many would think.

As for Trump, he is facing a world of hurt. The NAACP suit will likely succeed, which is enough ammunition for him to be disqualified from holding any federal office, assuming he is not otherwise convicted by a jury drawn from District of Columbia voters or held by a judge whose appointment was likely cleared by Delegate Norton. Charges of seditious conspiracy are likely, as is an indictment based on part two of the Mueller report.

Then there is the case of Lev, Igor and Rudy. SDNY is investigating more than Trump's finances. They have obtained indictments on the first two and are likely closing in on the third. Follow the money from Russia to the Trump Super PAC, which supported both congressional candidates, the Trump Organization and the Trump crime family. The EDVA may also have charges.

The world is waiting for an Order in Trump v. Vance II. It can keep waiting until the Grand Jury finishes its work. While all orders of the Court are eventually published, that publication can be delayed to protect Grand Jury secrecy. The information is more likely to be used as official copies. Weiselberg has already sung to SDNY (and others) and probably brought a data stick or furnished passwords for read only Trump Organization files.

Then there is the loss of brand, banking and the inability to pay all of those balloon payments. Creditors want their cut before SDNY, NYS and NYC start seizing all Trump Organization property worldwide.

Trump should take a deal. Nolo Contendre is his best option and the best option for his children and in-laws. Business licenses will be revoked, property seize, probation arranged and political options forfeited.

American political culture resists send Presidents to jail, nor does it criminalize foreign policy - although bribery may make it onto the table.

Emoluments will come up, but there is no criminal penalty for incomplete reporting under 5 USC 7342, the Foreign Gifts and Decorations Act. This Act is the kind of permission required by the Constitution. Of course, if Trump perjured himself in submitting disclosures to the White House Counsel, he can be prosecuted for that too - provided such a declaration was mad under penalty of perjury. 

Still, the Trump International Hotel should be audited to see if costs incurred by foreign guests were reasonable and proper (that is, that the customary rate was charged with no defacto money laundering to give the Trump Organization an undeserved cut.

All of this could happen fairly quickly. The work is divided among separate people in a race to be first and best, making a deal much more likely. Any such deal should include a permanent gag order. We have had enough.

Electing the President

Creation of a compact to have each state's electors cast their votes for the national popular vote winner would give the presidency to highest vote getter, even if the electoral outcome is a plurality rather than a majority. It takes away state-by-state gaming but it favors population centers over states.

There is an alternative which goes the other way, with each state going the way of Maine and Nebraska. 

A hybrid of these two is should be considered. Each state would distribute its electors by congressional district, with the two additional electors going to the winner of the national popular vote. This makes the national vote important, as well as each district. 

Of course, the question of repealing the Electoral College and replacing it with a vote by the House, with each member having one vote and the national popular vote, or two electoral votes from each state, determine the other 102 electors. Six of one, half dozen of the other.

Smaller parties might even win a district - a real possibility if the Republicans and the Democrats both split, although such a split would likely result in at least one national party made up of money interests with the other taking on progressive Democrats, Libertarians and Greens. The nation is due for such a realignment, which may happen without a change in presidential selection. The possibility of another election decided by the House of Representatives would force realignment sooner than later.

Regionalization could be used to elect the President. First, create regional caucuses in the Senate and House (with equal electoral vote strength). Second create the office of regional vice president selected by the Electoral College. 

Every four years, a third of the electors in each region are selected by each caucus who, along with the regional VP's, elect the President. This could also be done by interstate compact. A national caucus would be made up of a delegate from each regional House and Senate. 

Regional Senate Caucuses would be return to their original purpose, to assure that large state interests do not outweigh small state interests. If that is not seen as important, the Senate can be abolished. Regardless, regional caucuses would make government closer to people, rather than the majority party in the House working its will at the expense of the minority party. Under the Hastert Rule, which was inevitable, the Speaker may as well be a Prime Minister, making the President and the Senate superfluous. 

A constitutional amendment would be used to create a regional electoral college and specify that the President be elected by the National Caucus and regional vice presidents directly every two years. This would fulfill the original purpose of the Electoral College and prevent the election of another amateur president