Racism, Russia and Trump

When Donald Trump talks about those people, he means Black like Vice President Harris. When Vance talks about not supporting aid to Ukraine, he is defending the actions of Vladimir Putin, a KGB Colonel. You may not have believed it, but Trump is a racist and Vance a traitor. You have been warmed. So who do you stand with?

Who gets the Haley (never Trump) voters?

Trump or Harris? Will Trump be skunked? He needs to leave the race or else he will not only be the worst President, but also the only major party candidate who loses all 538 electoral votes.

Harris-Haley Centrism? Harris-Whitmer sounds better

Noon on Thursday EDT

A 3-Minute Fact-Check of Donald Trump's Debate Lies

Joe leaving the race is so unfair to Trump

Boo hoo. 

Donald has only himself to blame. If he had left office without an insurrection, he could have used the immunity defense to shield himself from the evidence he was a vassal to Putin and been covered by the official acts doctrine (unless the quid pro quo on cancelling Javelins in return for funding Protect the House is provable).  Because he stretched out the process, Judge Chutkin will not rule before ballots are printed. So unfair.

Donald's best deal is to take whatever Smith would offer him now. After the ruling, which will be that official acts does not cover everything (and what is left is proven by evidence Trump's lawyers have seen), it will be too late to get house arrest. His only defense is insanity, either not being able to stand trial (see his last NY conviction), he was insane when he tweeted that Jan 6 will be wild, or that upon conviction, he will be incarcerated in a behavioral health facility. In other words, if he does not make a deal now, all roads lead to 

Walter Reed.

He cannot stop the trial. That decision is ultimately up to the Court - and Judge Chutkin will not allow obstructing justice to be an official act. The Circuit Court for DC will agree and the Supremes will not take the case.

Why should Trump settle now? If he fights on, he will lose every state. No one who voted for Nikki will vote for him. They will vote for Kamala.

538 to 0. Not only will he be the worst President ever, but he will be the first major party candidate to be skunked.

Biden getting out of the race was not unfair to Trump. Trump staying in the race is unfair to the Republican Party. Biden called out Trump as an enemy of Democracy. Biden is correct.

Do either Donald or Melania really care enough about the Republican Party to drop out now (and take JD with them)? I doubt it. Trump is not a well man.

He has no proposals to handle tax policy that are beyond extending the Ryan tax cuts. A deal on abortion is beyond his capability (fetal hospice). He will not push for the Fair Tax (which is a VAT if tax payments previously made are 100% credited - as should be the case now - as now they are only deducted).

I could craft policies for either side to solve the issues of the day - but I won't work with Trump.

Harris 2024!

Firing Jack Smith video

Firing Jack Smith

Anchors on cable and broadcast news talk about Trump ending prosecution against him like it is actually true, but they never say how. I have questions.

If Donald Trump issued one of his “Executive Orders” from the resolute desk, would that be enough to force Jack Smith and/or Judge Chutkin to dismiss the charges against him or fire Smith or cause him to resign?

IF NOT

Would he have to have his lawyer give them to Jack Smith and/or Judge Chutkin first? Would that force action?

IF NOT

Could the President’s Counsel turn these glorified memos into an executive order, could his lawyers then take to Jack Smith or the Court? Would that force action? What if the White House Counsel delivered the order?

IF NOT

Could the glorified memo, or other communication to the White House, be delivered to the DOJ and would this force the DOJ to send a memo to Smith and/or the Court to dismiss the charges?

WHAT IF

There were no confirmed AG or acting AG? Could (or would) a career acting AG be forced to make such a motion? OR fire Jack Smith? Would the Senate confirm anyone who would fire Smith?

Would Judge Chutkin be required to dismiss the charges? Or could she say NO?

Why is the media not asking these questions?

Is Donald Trump assuming that the media’s not asking these questions proof that he can make the charges against him go away?

Is that meme keeping him in the race?

Harris 2024 - Slave Ukrani

The youth of Vance likely was a problem for Biden. The youth of Harris will eventually get Trump out - as well as Jack Smith. In the end, it is Melania's choice.

I was a supporter of Vice President Harris in 2019, was disappointed when she withdrew and ecstatic when she was made VP. She will obliterate Trump, if he is foolish enough to stay in. Now, the question is JD Who? Vance's only claim to fame is supporting Putin on Ukraine.

Salve Ukrani!

Understanding Trump Rallies

"Rose, don't hover" -- Whoopi Goldberg takes Sally Field to the mall in ...

...there is even an escalator

GOP Congressmen are in trouble

Pity the GOP Congressmen who must be visibly loyal to MAGA after Thursday's disaster of a speech. I suspect that some members will take supporting Trump out of their ads - while the DCCC and DSCC will be finding old ads where they have already said it.

They need to find an actual governing agenda - one with specifics. I have a few ideas. 

Foreign Policy 

Tax Policy - consumption taxes

Tax Policy - Asset VAT

Governance

Climate

Abortion - God is not an Ogre

Trump cannot win, given tonight's speech. What about 2026?

I saw some of the playback and the MSNBC reaction. Joe will have no worries in beating Trump. Trump's speech was that bad. If Trump wins any state, we need to check the water in that state.

Running against Vance is the issue - and it has likely already been polled.

The Democrats will keep the Senate, the White House and retake the House (due to redistricting changing the map to correct enough gerrymanders to make a difference). 

The question is whether Joe will decline so much by 2026 to give the GOP a way back into power. People may not like that he was put in for a time rather than exiting now. That is literally the only concern on Joe left after tonight.

Regarding Joe: Why this weekend?

Since JD Vance was put on the ticket, the Biden campaign has been polling the four possibilities. They are doing this because the Democrats have and are good lawyers and they know Trump's goose is cooked. It will take convincing Melania of three things to get him out of the race: 

1. Once the DC Circuit Court receives the remand instructions from the Supremes, Judge Chutkin will quickly ask for briefs and make her decisions. Some of the memos analyzing the issues have likely been written already. The evidence (which Trump has from discovery) is such that he knows he is dead to rights on whatever she finds fits under the heading of unofficial acts.

2. She makes it clear that winning the election does not stop the trial. The meme is that it might. The meme is wrong.

3. The question of how to confine a former president is developed, with Trump getting some idea of what awaits him.

This is why the Biden-Harris campaign is polling Vance v. Biden and Vance v. Harris. Put Whitmer on the ticket with Harris and the Blue Wall is strong. Harris will bring back the Obama voters and take Republican women from Vance as well.

Polls are important, but the real question is whether Joe is in such decline as to need to resign now or have Harris and the Cabinet make the decision for him. If these discussions are not taking place, the members of the cabinet are not doing their jobs.

As to the polls, they went out as soon as Vance was selected and likely finished today. Tonight, they do the analysis and give it to Joe in Delaware over the weekend. The Democratic polls are better because they have a database of actual likely voters. Who is registered and how often they vote are matters of public record. You draw a random sample from that frame, mostly in the battlegrounds, and will get a very accurate answer. 

The GOP polls are not as good. They use random digit dialing. They have for decades - as long as I have been in politics. Their results oversample low information voters who will stay home - which is why any RDD poll that GOP pollsters do is off by 3 or four points. This is why RCP poll averages are trash.

Joe would likely win and the Dems will pick up the House because of redistricting away GOP gerrymanders and will keep the Senate because no one is giving money to GOP Senate candidates. Next year, the Senate needs to reduce cloture threshold from 60 to 56 so that real governance can happen, including going back to making deals to get things passed.

The polls are important, however the big question is whether he is declining now, rather than two years from now - which would cost the Democrats hugely in the midterms.

Is Trump a Liar or a Fool

Trump is a businessman. He lives on telling people what he thinks they want to hear. To him, lying is a skill, not a flaw.

What he hates is being called ignorant. Not outing him as being wrong or mistaken gets under his skin. It is high risk, because you are telling his supporters that they may be ignorant. These people are not voting for Joe anyway, so it is literally a no risk strategy.

Let's give it a whirl. Should Biden say it - maybe in the second debate. Surrogates need to start saying it now. You cannot educate his voters on his stupidity until you call him stupid. 

The people around him are lying to cover up his lack of knowledge, even when they know better. Point that out too, as what they say enables stupidity on a large scale. The problem is not partisanship, it is people believing stupid things because other people won't say that what Trump is saying is stupid. Start saying it.

In what world does Melania Trump care at all about the GOP?

Eating Crow over Joe - 4 more years

Biden nailed it in the press conference tonight. The media, to have any credibility, need to do two things: 

1. Release likely voter poll data. As Biden said, in all likely voter polls, Biden wins easily. The Blue Wall is growing higher

2. Start asking when Trump will have the same kind of press conference Biden just nailed. Every Democrat must make that point. It needs to be the meme for the next two weeks.

I would still like to see the polls of Biden or Harris against whomever Trump picks as VP and vs Nikki Haley. Likely voters, not registered voters or adult Americans. I suspect the Dems are doing that already. It is why Joe is still in the race. Not doing so would be an oversight.

There is a very real possibility that Trump will be off the ticket. We know that Judge Chutkin will delineate which acts are unofficial - and very quickly. She may even talk about how this trail cannot be cancelled by the DOJ. The final thing to stop a trial is to let Trump know what to expect upon conviction. His lawyers need to either ack the judge or estimate what will happen and go to Melania to make the decision. 

She is likely also decisionmaker on the VP choice - like last time. Convince her that a deal is the best thing and Trump is done. Of course, she cares nothing for the Republican Party, which is what scares them - or should.

Can Joe Still Serve?

Is Biden's staff protecting him? If so, can the Cabinet do what is needed or do we need an additional congressional body - likely the Big 6 (VP, Speaker, leaders of both parties) to make the decision if the Cabinet cannot?

Lucky Scott Perry

Unless the members of Congress who met with the President on December 29th were coordinating attendance at the Jan 6 riot,. they are in the clear. Scott Perry's efforts to make Jeffrey Clark the acting AG are now official acts. The bar got higher for members. Unless they were part of the effort to plan the breech of the Speaker's lobby, they are immune. Call it dumb luck.

Waiting for Judge Chutkin

Who is waiting?

Jack Smith - what else and who else is to be charged

Trump - until she rules on official acts and hints in both presidential incarceration and Smith's tenure, he won't give in

Judge Cannon - waiting for a deal.

Georgia - waiting for a deal

President Biden - waiting to see if Trump is off the ticket.

Congressional Democrats - waiting to see if they need to write 14th Amendment into the rules

Congressional Republicans - waiting to see who is indicted next

Allies - waiting to see if they can count on US

Putin - waiting to see if his stooge can save him in Ukraine

DJT: Team USA or Team KGB?

Start in NY. The crimes investigated were about Deutsche Bank and whether Trump broke the law in helping Russia move money in violation of sanctions due to their aggression in Ukraine. That case was dropped and replaced with whether covering up an affair is a campaign finance expenditure. Usually, I think of mailings and TV ads made in coordination with the campaign when they should have been independent of the candidate. Blame our broken campaign finance system for that mess.

Next stop, Iran and the Contras. The Boland Amendment made what North, Poindexter and probably Bush Sr. (only suspected by smart people) did in getting hostages back with weapons a crime. Since yesterday, that would have been considered an official act. Official acts probably should not be crimes. The parallel was Mulvaney and the OMB trying to stop Ukraine from getting Javelin missiles. The DoD Comptroller stopped that and the Perfect Phone Call was perfect because it turned the affair into election interference rather than criminalizing an official act - although there was likely a financial incentive for Trump and the operators of the Republican Protect the House PAC. If that connection had been made, the Senate would have convicted. They did not. Should the FBI look into this? They probably have. The DoJ likely concluded that the case was not obvious enough. Did the House managers not use the information because they thought beating Trump would involve coattails? You would have to ask them.

Is there evidence that Trump was involved in the Insurrection plan? So far, DOJ has not charged it - although what happened at 2:44 on Jan 6 is the kind of circumstantial evidence good enough to make the case, but so far Bannon, Stone and Oath Keepers have not provided the testimony needed, nor has anyone else. It is a harder case to make - as even the Jan 6 Committee did not connect the dots.

Donald Trump's crimes are hard to prove and, because their were related official acts, many now cannot be touched. None of them are not widely known. We know he is a sleeze who loves his KGB Colonel and wants a deal made in Ukraine. If he had convinced Putin to trade NATO membership for the provinces he took, the war may have been avoided. Again, official acts.

In the end, the question for GOP voters is whether getting rid of Roe was enough for them to get in bed with Putin. It is a matter of public policy at the end of the day, thanks to the Supreme Court. Maybe that is how is should be, considering that DOJ is only looking for easy wins rather than rooting out bribery and a harder to prove conspiracy (and at first, did not want to open the investigation at all against Trump).

The answer is now rather obvious: Team KGB or Team USA? I know how I am voting.

Watch this space!

On Thursday, I will be dropping videos on what I am looking for the current or next president to do, from the perspective of what I would do in his or her shoes.

Why wait? Because the Supreme Court announcement of the lack of immunity held by Trump will dominate the news cycle today - an maybe for a few days.