Nothing to see on Epstein - Until Today

I was not going to say anything about the Epstein files until Trump took it from mildly bad to the appearance of corruption. How did he manage that? Just like with the Ukraine affair - which led to his moves to retain power on January 6th - Trump's guilty conscience leads him to double down on the stupid. A bit of infighting with the Deputy FBI Director - which was likely leaked - has led to Trump's former defense attorney speaking with Ghislaine Maxwell for six hours. This meeting for "fact finding" gives the appearance of collusion and obstruction of justice ending with a pardon.

If Trump and his people had professionals in the building, they would have told them that the appearance of corruption must be avoided at all costs. They also would have made sure that the Deputy AG, Deputy Director and all the Deputy Secretaries were experienced in government rather than have the be personal friends of the President. This assures that Trump and his cabinet don't do things that embarrass the Administration.  

This mirrors how Catholic and Evangelical pastors are responding to the reports of near death experiencers - by inserting their usual narrative to counter-program against the truth. It looks bad to do so and it stops the natural evolution of the Church away from an arrogant god with arrogant church leaders to one which loves us, no matter what, and who has us look at our own actions - both good and bad - and judge ourselves - but wrapped in his love. They wonder, where does this leave the Church. The answer is in celebration of the fact of a loving God that demands we forgive rather than judge - both as individuals and as a Church. 

Of course, if everyone experiences God after death - once they call upon his mercy if required - were to find that mercy - then there would be no need for indulgences. In fact, no indulgence, plenary or otherwise, will save us from having a life review. Nothing we do can keep us from facing our own evil - and then letting it go.

Trump should have done the same thing with Epstein. But he cannot help himself. Trump trying to cover his ass is about as remarkable as today being Thursday.

Democrats will catch the car

Trump just called his base stupid. That may keep them away from the polls in 2026 and 2028. In 2017, they wrapped him in cotton. This time, he really has to govern. This means he has to actually make deals if he wants his agenda passed - or be graceful when it cannot be. He is learning on the job this time.

Still, an alienated MAGA base means that the neoliberal Democrats - the ones who raise money to win elections - now have to worry about what happens the rest of the time. It means they have to raise taxes on business, interest and capital gains (which the populists will want to) and do so by compromising with Republicans at a rate between 25% and 29%, with capital gains taxed a point of sale rather than at the end of the year - so 26% will be adequate.

More importantly, they need to work on wage equity. Not just minimum wages of $14.50 for a 26 hour, 4 day week - with a $1000 child tax credit and a $13.25 student/stay at home parent/long term unemployment insurance rate; but also by changing how inflation is compensated.

People do not earn cost of living increases - and awarding them on a percentage of income basis has some people starve while others by their second EV and McMansion. Government contractors, employees and beneficiaries need to accept an equal dollar per hour increase - which private industry will likely replicate because they are cheap.

This will hit the donor base of the Dems harder than they expect - but that is the choice between fundraising and governing. This is what happens when you catch the car.

Republicans caught the car on foreign aid

The DOGE foreign aid rescission bill has passed both houses and will be finished and sent to Trump soon. Now, when people are asked what should be cut to balance the budget, interviewers will have to say, as a follow up, "Did you know that Trump cut foreign aid?" The target get harder to meet now, but the coalition is there to give Trump what he wants. In the end, if budget deficit reduction is really important, the only real means is to increase business, interest and capital gains (asset value added) taxes to 26% or 27%. 31% would be enough to start undoing capitalism, but we don't need to do that today. Like any populist frenzy, however, there is never enough progress.

Russia is pathetic

Russia launched a huge attack on Kyiv and killed ten people. It's a war crime, but not a very effective one. It took resources away from the front and betrayed the malice of the entire enterprise. For all practical purposes, Ukraine is part of NATO and Moscow does not have the means to prevent it. A hint from an old cold warrior - your nukes have not had the gas treatments necessary to function - and everyone but Trump knows it. On the energy front, the current developments in small molten salt reactors have made Russian oil and gas useless in the long term. Russia does not have the industry or population to exploit what China might be able to do - and China is in the same demographic boat Russia is - one that is sinking.

No one is going to attack Muscovy. It has nothing anyone wants. Not the food. Not the culture. Your people don't even smile at each other. It is in the same league as Belarus, eastern Germany and Hungary. The nations, if their people were effective at doing modern democracy, would have had revolutions by now. South Korea, which is dying as far as population growth, at least can stop a dictatorship from forming.

If Zelinsky wanted to do to Moscow what Putin is doing to Kyiv, he would be much more effective. He does not because he is not a war criminal. The U.S. could ruin Moscow in a 30 hour operation. We don't kill civilians the way we used to. I take that back - we did that quite well in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Don't press your luck, Vlad. Just stop the war. Just resign and fire your security state apparatus. Give the land east of the Urals to China - or buy it to settle your war debt to Ukraine. Without the oil fields, it cannot be exploited well by Russia. In a generation without the Putin system, its people might be worth admitting into the European Union. They certainly are not now. Someone needs to teach them how to smile first.

What is missing from Trump's government

Professionalism. He is an individualist/sectarian fascist. They hate professionalism. His staff is, like him, individualistic and loyal, but not professional. When professionals try to prevent the President's staff from breaking the law, they get fired or resign in protest. Professionalism is the unwritten performance standard in the civil service - which is driven by reason and a shared way of looking at the world - an intuitive paradigm.  

A good political appointee needs to listen to career staff when they say something cannot be done. They need to point out (likely they have not) that doing the illegal or unconstitutional act will make the appointee and the elected official look bad.

I have been a professional bureaucrat and a professional political appointee. On the first day of work for any appointee, it is drilled into you that you must never make the boss look bad (or yourself - because how people see you is how they see your boss - as well as the reverse). Also, never let the boss embarrass himself or herself.

Trump's people don't know that. Don't do that and would be fired by any able political operative. This is why Trump will be ineffective and why he was effective last time he was president. He had Pence and Mike was a professional - and made sure that Trump was mostly surrounded by professionals - or that idiots like Miller could not get ideas into the chain command. This time, the brakes are off. 

The Courts have been striking down all the illegal and unconstitutional things Trump  and Steven Miller are trying to do. It would have been less embarrassing for Trump if someone would have told him that there were certain things he could never do. This time, there are no adults in the room, which limits the damage Trump can do. Trump wants to be king. Instead, he is the Jester.

The delusion of individual control, explained through chaos theory | Bri...

Hurricanes come about from sand being blown from the Sahara desert to the Atlantic. Collectively we can influence the world. We do this based on the contract we make with God before we are born - as does everyone else. What we do has spiritual ripples. When we are kind, kindness spreads. When we are cruel, cruelty expands.

The universe and God function in the same way from our POV. God in western thought is being, the knowledge of being and the dynamism of consciousness in the universe of living beings. Physics is that knowledge - with chaos factored in.

New Supreme Court Ruling WILL NOT Help Trump Cancel Constitutional Birth...

Some history on these issues: 

Scalia would say that this 14th Amendment provision applied to Freemen only, not as a general rule. It has largely been considered a view that is deaf to the actual intent of the drafters of the Amendment. The book Democracy Reborn by Garrett Epps goes into detail about this.

An example of this kind of case was when the Service Members Legal Defense Fund obtained a judgement in a district court in California overturning Don't Ask, Don't Tell for the entire nation. The Senate mooted the case by overturning the policy legislatively. That case, more than the Trump order, led right wingers like the Heritage Foundation, pay attention to this practice.

The decision in this case harkens back to Justice Thomas' concurrence in the Dobbs case overturning Roe.

Big Beautiful Bill Gets a B

This bill is largely ministerial and optics. Biden could have gotten a tax increase, plus extension of the good parts of the bill (which preserve tax rule changes that were bipartisan and should not have been time limited for ten years) but he did not. Had he been successful, the upcoming depression due to housing prices would not have already started. I say depression because prices will be lower than the debt backing the assets - not merely a slowdown in consumer spending.

The debt is mostly sucked up by retirement funds, money and mutual funds, as well as by the rich, and it makes capitalism possible. Unless there is a major push for employee-ownership, there is no other alternative (TINA). Not now does not mean never.

The Medicaid and SNAP cuts are back loaded and will be abolished by the next Democratic Congress after the 2026 election. AARP will do its job - either loudly or quietly - depending on how Trump or Vance feels. Vance will let it happen quietly.

The immigration pieces that are unconstitutional will not take effect, those that are show that elections matter.  Oddly, Trump is going after human trafficking in Big Agriculture and Food, Inc., which his capitalist friends do not like. Immigration reform may one day happen if enough pressure is applied. Big Food stopped it by funding the whole birthright citizenship issue - they liked having a pliant trafficked workforce. Trump is ruining this for them, so maybe they will have to back reform.

Progress cannot be stopped forever.