Happy Monday! in three parts

It's been a while since I posted. I've been busy with other projects. There are three videos in this series covering what is going on now and what to do about it.

1. Global warming: Still waiting for a good article on how we keep having the worst summer ever (since before the last glaciation). The temperatures then were great for dinosaurs (now birds), but not so good for humans - although humans follow the shoreline. It moves and we move with it. The impact on infrastructure is a detail (and most of our current infrastructure needs to be scrapped anyway). I am still working on climate change paper - the one proposing tethered electric cars, molten salt reactors and how to get there socially/economically.

2. SpaceX. Starship was scrubbed last night, look for a new launch window. SpaceX goes incrementally with only the visions of Elon to guide it forward. As a believer in both Spinoza and Jesus, I don't care about the loss of human thought - it is pan galactic and in the next life, we will keep it going. Getting to the Moon is still interesting and adding SRBs to the second stage of Falcon Heavy can get us to there - with a landing system aft of the main fuel tanks of the second stage inserted to get to and from the Moon - with that rocket coming back to Earth with fuel for near earth orbit operation - because that is how gravity wells work. The question is how to get SpaceX and the rest of the community to consider the option. Goddard?

3. A Russian Empire. Ukraine should be the seat of the Rus, not Muscovy. Nothing good ever came out of Moscow. Ukraine was always the brain trust of the Soviet Union. Now that they are destroying Russian infrastructure, they are the strongest part and should be the HQ. The Putin system, especially internal security, needs to fall and Russian Asia (and far north America) needs to determine its own fate - as well as Turkey and Persia - so that ethnic federations can be formed (Kazakh, Turkic, Mongol/First Nations). Of course, for this to happen, the CCP must also fall. Details.

4. Israel. The Gazan genocide/famine/ethnic cleansing needs to stop. Those apologists who cannot see this and say it publicly have spent any credibility they have. Saying that Arabs are better off in Israel than the rest of the region is setting a low bar. Refugee camps for Gaza need to be in Israel proper. Let these people go home - as their Canaanite roots are as deeper than the Sephardim. That they are Muslim means that they adopted the religion of the conquerors - to the extent that people adopt a religion internally - most people don't, but play along because it is socially advantageous. No one followed second temple Judaism in the time of the Judges, or of David or until and after the exile, the conversion by Philip of Samaria, the adoption of Christianity by New Rome and the Muslim invasions. My point is, however, that any Zionist apologist who does not decry the current actions of the government is ignoring Torah and is not a very good Jew. To the extent that people can be bad - what they are allowing is bad (and I am someone who does not even believe in Hell).

4. Trump (and Vance). Speaking of bad people - Trump had skull reduction surgery. It is why he could not serve (bone spurs were a cover story) and why his hair is the way that it is (below the collar). Making fun of his hair, if one knows about his medical history, makes someone a bad person. Trump has is problems - but he is likely lead to Vance running in 2028 as a sitting president. If Vance can cope with current challenges, he will deserve a second term. If he cannot reverse things, and or someone runs against him, then the Democrats win.

5. The Democrats lack a vision, other than winning elections. Trump has thrown the neoliberals out of the GOP, but the Neos still fund both parties anyway because they can count votes. Since the Clintons, becoming electoral rather than having a vision (like the Greens), stops them from fixing anything but infrastructure - which after it is passed, everyone supports. The Greens have a vision, most of which I agree with, but only work as part of a coalition. Their view will never be an outright majority - as their (our) personality/cultural type is not widely held. Neither is the neoliberal/woke style of the Democrats (who usually lack vision). The infrastructure changes required to fight global warming (see point 1) won't be passed by Capitalists - it takes a more worker controlled (cooperative) economy to get there. That movement needs a leader - because leaders bring about policy change. It's actually easier to run for President than rise through the ranks (less expensive to get known - but you have to get known first). I will follow or be that person, but getting known is the issue - and right now, it ain't me, no it ain't me - I'm not a Senator' son, no....Some kind of change is inevitable. How we get there and the details are TBD.

Part 2: https://youtu.be/7VWbIl5Ljfg

Part 3: https://youtu.be/jxKX7UUjqKg

Even MAGA SCOTUS Won't TOUCH Gay Marriage

Dominionists believe that if they allow what they consider evil in society that God will withdraw his favor. Unless you understand that, you won't understand these people.

Why do We Still Need to Work?

A better option is 6.5*4 days or a 26 hour week (one third less), with a one-sixth decline in salary levels - but with a doubling of the minimum wage from 7.25 to 14.50 and a long-term unemployment insurance rate of 13.25 - with recipients required to be in school, caring for a child, or participating in a drug, psychiatric or physical disability rehabilitation program. This would result in a 82.5-65-100 deal, rather than 100-80-100. 

Manufacturing and service industries would have a two (or four) shift system - with a 43% bonus for second shift labor (working 52 hours in a week) or 200-130-200.  LTUI would pay 1481 per month.  Full time minimum wage would pay 1621 per month. Average Social Security would be 2494 (pegged to FT Min wage 40 hour work week).

Current min wage work is often for 29 hours a week, so real min wage job pays 904 per month.

COLAs are currently a fixed percentage of last year's wage, which causes inequality because prices chase wages at the 90th percentile. If they are granted on an equal dollar basis, management will give themselves the number of dollars that they need, with the understanding that everyone under them gets the same raise in dollar terms.  Managers and professionals will have to settle for less - and executives much less - but the economy would grow with less inflation (because it is excomp and professional salaries that drive up prices - especially for housing).

If You Don’t Understand Bonds, You Don’t Understand Money

The correct metric for determining whether the National Debt is too high is its ratio to Personal Income Taxes. The ability to accumulate such a debt at all is the ability to tax incomes (16th Amendment). When the ratio between the two was too low, there was not enough leverage for economic investment, since it is Treasury Bonds which provide that leverage.  There are four kinds of debt holding that are important. 1. the operational debt held by government funds not attributable to households, holdings in overseas official accounts and by state and local governments. This is about $7T. 2. the debt held to finance social security and Medicare that is broadly held by beneficiary households $3T. 3. Long term and monetary debt, including the Fed - which is ultimately owned by depositors and includes public and private pension holdings  $10.7 T 4. High yield debt held by mutual funds, direct bondholders - including assets held in Luxembourg, the Cayman Islands, Ireland, Switzerland by US an foreign capitalists $15.5 T. These were the figures from the June Treasury Bulletin - which was before the last auction.

Those with access to the Trust Funds are already retired and mainly fall into the first and second income quintiles. The top 10% hold 54% of long term assets and 77% of high yield assets (according to the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finance by the Fed). According to IRS estimates, for any distribution of AGI, the bottom 90% get half and the top 10% get half. The same fraction exists between the top 1% and the remaining 9% (and top 0.1 % and remaining 0.9%). Note that stocks have no federal debt backing - even though mutual funds do by holding T Notes. This means that the top 1% hold about 27% of long term assets and deposit accounts and half of high yield accounts (.77*.77). You can do the math to determine how much the top 0.1% hold. IRS income figures are in line with these estimates.

Net interest on the debt is distributed to the last two types of funds and is necessary for capitalism to grow. If net interest equaled the deficit, then there would be no expansion of capital - we would be treading water.  To even get to that point, to avoid slowing the economy - taxes on the population that holds the debt would need to be increased - especially by partially or fully repealing preferred rates for interest, dividends and capital gains. The result is that less junk will be created to inflate financial bubbles - especially those holding crypto, oil futures and mortgage backed securities - including the current commercial real estate bubble.

In the long term, a cooperative economy would have to provide control over finance and consumption as well as housing, production, infrastructure and human services. To get there the exemption for sales of private stock to qualified esops on capital gains taxes would have to be given to sales of other liquid assets - preferably with capital gains taxes being replaced with an asset value added tax at a high enough rate to encourage such sales, especially among heirs. 

This is What “Always” Happens Before a Market Crash

He left out one thing, which affected 1929, 1987, 2001 and 2008. Tax cuts on the wealthy, particularly on capital gains, which added incentives to favor investment schemes over work and freed up money for speculation - which was used to develop bad investments that were later sold to the general public (while cashing out). It is how the rich get richer.

Are You a Cafeteria Catholic?

The three issues cited can be public or personal - and all are a matter of natural law, not dogma. The Church's claim to superior knowledge on each of them is flawed - and borders on magicism. Letting another person end their life before their final period of pain is a form of compassion - that the Church should look at. We are a resurrection people who should not fear death or God. Abortion before quickening used to be the teaching of the Church - and 90% of abortions happen before that point. Again, Catholics may or may not have the procedure - but making it illegal often has doctors fear treating miscarriage - with tragic results. The death penalty, seen in a Hobbesian perspective, makes sense as euthanasia to protect people against danger - which is the obligation of the Sovereign - which in our case is the people. Even fellow prisoners should be protected against the murderous. Additionally, most - if no all - prisoners see life without parole as a death sentence. Again, there are natural law ethic questions that an educated Church can debate rather than obey.

On late term abortion, fetal hospice should be the process so as to forestall other forms of abortion, including in Catholic hospitals. No one has a right to not be born.

Also, the natural implication of Dignitatis Humanae is a limitation on the Church on insisting on a Catholic morality. To recognize freedom of religion without pluralism is a form of moral confusion on the part of the hierarchy. The Church contains all four ways of life (in a cultural space). The realists are the people in the pews who consider The Church to be the hierarchy. There is Faith - which is loyalty, and faith in God, which may require taking a leap to do what is right in a given situation - even to the extent of rejecting the teachings of the Church when it is in error (see masturbation, birth control, the ordination of women and gays and homosexuality in general). Differences in the latter lead to differences in what you cite.

The 10 Biggest Myths About Our Economy

I am going to deal with each of these points in turn - with the benefit of hindsight on the first 6 months of Trump 47. I am going to try to get these in front of Bob, but if anyone who sees this can also forward them, I would be grateful.

1. The missing variable in the moral philosophy of economics is cultural theory. I am writing about that now. Michael Foucault, in one of his Paris lectures, addressed Homo Economicus and hit the nail on the head. Political Science has followed Economics into empiricism - so it is of little help. Moral philosophy, without cultural theory as a context, is anecdotal for all intents and purposes.

The rules of the economy are based in culture. Most of the working class behaves as obliged to by reason and threat, while the hierarchical culture gives its membership at least the appearance of due process. The former deals with sensory input, the latter by shared intuition.  As I discussed in a public forum with Gar Alperovitz, the answer to getting them to pursue change is a better mix of cash and prizes - not through trying to radicalize them with political proposals. In other words, some type of employer needs to offer a better mix of consumption, finance, housing, government - with libertarian socialism in some form - which eventually destroys politics - becoming the new paradigm. Until them, as Marx said, anything that capitalism does to make things worse makes permanent change more likely - unless government steps in to improve the cage workers are in.

2. The problem is capitalism. Saying it is corporations is tiptoeing through the minefield. Workers are property. The Libertarian assumption is that every day of work is a new contract freely negotiated, rather than an agreement for continued wage slavery. The JFK/LBJ 1965 tax cuts are what unleashed capitalists - who took what was given them and, because they now had an interest in doing so - pushed for more.

3. CEOs will set their own pay until employee-owners get the power to force CEO candidates to bid for their jobs in open auction and then vote among the bottom 3. As for intergenerational wealth, within three generations the management class takes control and nepo-babies drink themselves into an early grave or spend it away.

4. Campaign bribery is a function, not a cause, of capitalism. It also causes the rules to be changed to its advantage.

6. Global trade and the "free market" are bipartisan neoliberalism, which Bill and Hillary copied to get their share of the campaign finance system. The Democrats have now put the electoral game over governing. Also, bankruptcy reform happened with the full cooperation of Jim Moran - a Democrat.  The Trump trade policy has destroyed neo-liberalism. Be careful what you wish for.

7. Taxing the rich is social democracy. Socialism happens when employees elect their CEOs and/or make them bid on their salaries. Social Security is the most basic form. We do SD, but do it badly.

8. Our lack of purchasing power is a function of bad economic policy. Cost of Living Increases are granted as a percentage of current wages,  rather than as an equal dollar increase in all salaries. Prices change the median dollar, which is paid at the 90th percentile. Economic figures support this. If the minimum wage went up in the same manner, there would be little poverty. Democrats won't go all in on making the minimum wage permanent, as it is a better talking point than a change that would cost them campaign contributions.

9. Government spending on social programs, government contracts and salaries is first order growth. Private sector spending comes along as a second order effect, with plant and equipment spending is third order spending. All for a higher minimum wage. Biden did not do it, even with a majority.  Some degree of concentration may be helpful - as long as there are more than one libertarian socialist cooperatives - but vertical integration is essential. Prices did go up when the pandemic gave too many people in good jobs enough money to invest in Crypto, crap and bidding up the price of essentials. Again, costs change the 90th percentile. How we do cost of living adjustments cause inflation.

10. Air pollution, etc., is regulated in the U.S., but we offshore much of it to China and other developing nations by sending them our trash or our trash producing industries. They will soon collapse because of population loss and party infighting. Authoritarians tend to eat each other.

Global warming's processing is not generally known, although in the northern hemisphere, people are starting to pay attention due to the fact that we passed the point of no return in about 2016. Actually, it was more like 1990. Here is how it works. Since 1958, people had lots of cars and warming really started with vigor. Pacific warming sent wet winds to the N. American west coast, where the water was dropped and the warmth carried over to the Atlantic, picking up much more water and even more temperature. See the work Seager who explains this - under the heading of why Europe is warmer than America at the same latitudes. As Sigurd Lind has found, much of the warmth has made its way to Barents Sea. According to measurements started in 1980 - which likely represent what happened since 1958 IMHO - warm the Sea by 7 degrees F a decade. Over 7 decades, that one bottom of water has increased 50 degrees Fahrenheit. No other place has caught so much climate change. The answer is to ban gasoline powered cars -as this produced the problem - and replace them with tethered electric vehicles that can drive themselves home. To get this kind of thing adopted, people abandoning the South and Southwest is the necessary condition - along with more employee-ownership - or corporate employers in individual cities banning cars or uniting behind such a change as a workforce issue.

BONUS. Agree that conditions led to Trumpism, but it is also a result of Democratic Party politics - mainly women voting on a pro-choice ticket when they don't need to mention the issue. Other women get it. Also, Dems don't really make changes upending the neo-liberal status quo. Trump has - as promised. Oops. Some say that undoing Neolib consensus was necessary anyway because China and other Asian nations are collapsing under population decline - for either economic or environmental reasons. We need a new paradigm. Until we do, we get grievance, which almost always leads to a fascistic response.

Nothing to see on Epstein - Until Today

I was not going to say anything about the Epstein files until Trump took it from mildly bad to the appearance of corruption. How did he manage that? Just like with the Ukraine affair - which led to his moves to retain power on January 6th - Trump's guilty conscience leads him to double down on the stupid. A bit of infighting with the Deputy FBI Director - which was likely leaked - has led to Trump's former defense attorney speaking with Ghislaine Maxwell for six hours. This meeting for "fact finding" gives the appearance of collusion and obstruction of justice ending with a pardon.

If Trump and his people had professionals in the building, they would have told them that the appearance of corruption must be avoided at all costs. They also would have made sure that the Deputy AG, Deputy Director and all the Deputy Secretaries were experienced in government rather than have the be personal friends of the President. This assures that Trump and his cabinet don't do things that embarrass the Administration.  

This mirrors how Catholic and Evangelical pastors are responding to the reports of near death experiencers - by inserting their usual narrative to counter-program against the truth. It looks bad to do so and it stops the natural evolution of the Church away from an arrogant god with arrogant church leaders to one which loves us, no matter what, and who has us look at our own actions - both good and bad - and judge ourselves - but wrapped in his love. They wonder, where does this leave the Church. The answer is in celebration of the fact of a loving God that demands we forgive rather than judge - both as individuals and as a Church. 

Of course, if everyone experiences God after death - once they call upon his mercy if required - were to find that mercy - then there would be no need for indulgences. In fact, no indulgence, plenary or otherwise, will save us from having a life review. Nothing we do can keep us from facing our own evil - and then letting it go.

Trump should have done the same thing with Epstein. But he cannot help himself. Trump trying to cover his ass is about as remarkable as today being Thursday.

Democrats will catch the car

Trump just called his base stupid. That may keep them away from the polls in 2026 and 2028. In 2017, they wrapped him in cotton. This time, he really has to govern. This means he has to actually make deals if he wants his agenda passed - or be graceful when it cannot be. He is learning on the job this time.

Still, an alienated MAGA base means that the neoliberal Democrats - the ones who raise money to win elections - now have to worry about what happens the rest of the time. It means they have to raise taxes on business, interest and capital gains (which the populists will want to) and do so by compromising with Republicans at a rate between 25% and 29%, with capital gains taxed a point of sale rather than at the end of the year - so 26% will be adequate.

More importantly, they need to work on wage equity. Not just minimum wages of $14.50 for a 26 hour, 4 day week - with a $1000 child tax credit and a $13.25 student/stay at home parent/long term unemployment insurance rate; but also by changing how inflation is compensated.

People do not earn cost of living increases - and awarding them on a percentage of income basis has some people starve while others by their second EV and McMansion. Government contractors, employees and beneficiaries need to accept an equal dollar per hour increase - which private industry will likely replicate because they are cheap.

This will hit the donor base of the Dems harder than they expect - but that is the choice between fundraising and governing. This is what happens when you catch the car.

Republicans caught the car on foreign aid

The DOGE foreign aid rescission bill has passed both houses and will be finished and sent to Trump soon. Now, when people are asked what should be cut to balance the budget, interviewers will have to say, as a follow up, "Did you know that Trump cut foreign aid?" The target get harder to meet now, but the coalition is there to give Trump what he wants. In the end, if budget deficit reduction is really important, the only real means is to increase business, interest and capital gains (asset value added) taxes to 26% or 27%. 31% would be enough to start undoing capitalism, but we don't need to do that today. Like any populist frenzy, however, there is never enough progress.

Russia is pathetic

Russia launched a huge attack on Kyiv and killed ten people. It's a war crime, but not a very effective one. It took resources away from the front and betrayed the malice of the entire enterprise. For all practical purposes, Ukraine is part of NATO and Moscow does not have the means to prevent it. A hint from an old cold warrior - your nukes have not had the gas treatments necessary to function - and everyone but Trump knows it. On the energy front, the current developments in small molten salt reactors have made Russian oil and gas useless in the long term. Russia does not have the industry or population to exploit what China might be able to do - and China is in the same demographic boat Russia is - one that is sinking.

No one is going to attack Muscovy. It has nothing anyone wants. Not the food. Not the culture. Your people don't even smile at each other. It is in the same league as Belarus, eastern Germany and Hungary. The nations, if their people were effective at doing modern democracy, would have had revolutions by now. South Korea, which is dying as far as population growth, at least can stop a dictatorship from forming.

If Zelinsky wanted to do to Moscow what Putin is doing to Kyiv, he would be much more effective. He does not because he is not a war criminal. The U.S. could ruin Moscow in a 30 hour operation. We don't kill civilians the way we used to. I take that back - we did that quite well in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Don't press your luck, Vlad. Just stop the war. Just resign and fire your security state apparatus. Give the land east of the Urals to China - or buy it to settle your war debt to Ukraine. Without the oil fields, it cannot be exploited well by Russia. In a generation without the Putin system, its people might be worth admitting into the European Union. They certainly are not now. Someone needs to teach them how to smile first.

What is missing from Trump's government

Professionalism. He is an individualist/sectarian fascist. They hate professionalism. His staff is, like him, individualistic and loyal, but not professional. When professionals try to prevent the President's staff from breaking the law, they get fired or resign in protest. Professionalism is the unwritten performance standard in the civil service - which is driven by reason and a shared way of looking at the world - an intuitive paradigm.  

A good political appointee needs to listen to career staff when they say something cannot be done. They need to point out (likely they have not) that doing the illegal or unconstitutional act will make the appointee and the elected official look bad.

I have been a professional bureaucrat and a professional political appointee. On the first day of work for any appointee, it is drilled into you that you must never make the boss look bad (or yourself - because how people see you is how they see your boss - as well as the reverse). Also, never let the boss embarrass himself or herself.

Trump's people don't know that. Don't do that and would be fired by any able political operative. This is why Trump will be ineffective and why he was effective last time he was president. He had Pence and Mike was a professional - and made sure that Trump was mostly surrounded by professionals - or that idiots like Miller could not get ideas into the chain command. This time, the brakes are off. 

The Courts have been striking down all the illegal and unconstitutional things Trump  and Steven Miller are trying to do. It would have been less embarrassing for Trump if someone would have told him that there were certain things he could never do. This time, there are no adults in the room, which limits the damage Trump can do. Trump wants to be king. Instead, he is the Jester.

The delusion of individual control, explained through chaos theory | Bri...

Hurricanes come about from sand being blown from the Sahara desert to the Atlantic. Collectively we can influence the world. We do this based on the contract we make with God before we are born - as does everyone else. What we do has spiritual ripples. When we are kind, kindness spreads. When we are cruel, cruelty expands.

The universe and God function in the same way from our POV. God in western thought is being, the knowledge of being and the dynamism of consciousness in the universe of living beings. Physics is that knowledge - with chaos factored in.

New Supreme Court Ruling WILL NOT Help Trump Cancel Constitutional Birth...

Some history on these issues: 

Scalia would say that this 14th Amendment provision applied to Freemen only, not as a general rule. It has largely been considered a view that is deaf to the actual intent of the drafters of the Amendment. The book Democracy Reborn by Garrett Epps goes into detail about this.

An example of this kind of case was when the Service Members Legal Defense Fund obtained a judgement in a district court in California overturning Don't Ask, Don't Tell for the entire nation. The Senate mooted the case by overturning the policy legislatively. That case, more than the Trump order, led right wingers like the Heritage Foundation, pay attention to this practice.

The decision in this case harkens back to Justice Thomas' concurrence in the Dobbs case overturning Roe.

Big Beautiful Bill Gets a B

This bill is largely ministerial and optics. Biden could have gotten a tax increase, plus extension of the good parts of the bill (which preserve tax rule changes that were bipartisan and should not have been time limited for ten years) but he did not. Had he been successful, the upcoming depression due to housing prices would not have already started. I say depression because prices will be lower than the debt backing the assets - not merely a slowdown in consumer spending.

The debt is mostly sucked up by retirement funds, money and mutual funds, as well as by the rich, and it makes capitalism possible. Unless there is a major push for employee-ownership, there is no other alternative (TINA). Not now does not mean never.

The Medicaid and SNAP cuts are back loaded and will be abolished by the next Democratic Congress after the 2026 election. AARP will do its job - either loudly or quietly - depending on how Trump or Vance feels. Vance will let it happen quietly.

The immigration pieces that are unconstitutional will not take effect, those that are show that elections matter.  Oddly, Trump is going after human trafficking in Big Agriculture and Food, Inc., which his capitalist friends do not like. Immigration reform may one day happen if enough pressure is applied. Big Food stopped it by funding the whole birthright citizenship issue - they liked having a pliant trafficked workforce. Trump is ruining this for them, so maybe they will have to back reform.

Progress cannot be stopped forever.

New Atheism: What Went Wrong?

The cynical argument for the existence of God is also empirical, while Dennett is correct that there are those who believe in the belief of God, there are others who find God in the Sacraments - both Communion and Baptism/Confirmation, that go beyond group dynamics, even at times when the Church behaves which such evil that no one should keep the faith.

The second empirical argument is near death experiencers. At least one case of many demonstrate the truth of the experience on the other side. The existence of mediums who have gifts not used in fraud also verify the existence of souls beyond materialism. These experiences also show that a belief in God is not at all necessary to experience grace in the afterlife. Since it has no effect, the argument about God is simply a pleasant diversion with no ultimate effect - regardless of what the Church teaches or what New Atheists deny.

The third empirical argument is that materialism and belief can exist in the same space. The existence of the energy of life in chemical and electrical forms is consistent with a materialistic soul which disproves the ghost in the machine - as proven by neuroscientific explorations on consciousness (including finding a God center - which is likely to be about group dynamics, not God).

The existence of the universalism of Spinoza (pantheism) is also consistent with the very real success of Alcoholics Anonymous - which is blatantly pantheistic, as well as the belief in both the early Church and the teachings of the last two bishops that no one is in Hell - which also coincides with the teachings of Jesus that are not stressed (a God of Love, whose yoke is easy and burden light, that the resurrection is not reanimation and that forgiveness is essential). In this way, the argument is essential not in proving or disproving God, but in criticizing where the Church gets it wrong as a human organization that behaves in a way that can be explained by sociology. That belief can occur despite the Church is the argument for God.

At least this is what works for me. As for the New Atheist denial of a god by the use of scorn against identifying as a believer, this is simply a use of the Ad Hominem fallacy by people who should know better.

'Big, Beautiful' Medicaid Cuts, Explained

The Medicaid cuts are a scam to get the tax cuts passed - including those which extend Estate Tax Rules currently in force. When the GOP loses Congress, the cuts will be stopped. The most onerous cuts passed in 2017 were permanent - and were likely bipartisan behind the scenes - those cuts being the ones that cut corporate income tax rates and introduced matching pass through rates and qualified dividend rates to match - which is pretty much a good idea. Biden wanted to add a 5% increase to the bad cuts but did not get it done - so we really are in the Trump economy and had been through the entire Biden Administration. Biden and Harris could not say this because they wanted to claim credit for the strong Dow - which inflated in price (more money, same goods in Blue Chip sector with the addition of a lot of junk (Bitcoin and Mortgage Backed Securities built into index funds). 

Balancing the budget without raising taxes on business must wait for more basic tax reform. The real cost to the poor is because of tariffs, which are about the same as a value added tax with the kind of exemptions you would expect legislators to throw in rather than have a broad based tax. Tariffs are necessary to at least match VATs that are zero rated at export - with the understanding that other national VATs add back taxation by the importing nation. To an extent, state sales taxes do that - although at lower rates - and businesses who charge sales taxes can deduct them from their Gross Income. Families are partially held harmless by the increase in the Child Credit by $500 per year, although this works out to only $41.66 per month per child. Not renewing the cuts does not decrease tariffs and reduces the Child Credit to $1000 per year per child - which is an increase of 124.98 per month in taxes - although abandoning the Trump cuts would bring back the child tax exemption of a bit more than $3000 per child per year - which effectively still puts a lot of people off the tax roles who are poor. Harris would have increased the child credit to about what the Big Beautiful Bill goes to, with a $500 sweetener for newborns. Child tax credit amounts are one of those bipartisan measures that need to be doubled and indexed for inflation.

The GOP should also give low wage workers a raise - Trump may be embarrassed into doing that if the Pope asks him to. To make it back to Clinton era levels, it would have to be $12 per hour. Biden should have passed this in his first year. So should have Obama. If hours are cut to 7 per day for a four day week more people would get jobs and to keep the same wage level, the rate would need to be $14.50. In some states, it already is. Only GOP states screw over their own people, largely due to White Supremacist ideology which assumes that only people of color have these jobs.

Running a deficit is essential to keep capitalism active because this keeps interest payments flowing to investors who hold bonds directly or through mutual funds (77% of which is owned by the top 10% - who own 54% of pension, retirement account and bank assets and deposits). For capitalism to grow, the deficit must grow. $300 Billion per year over ten years may not even pay the interest, depending on what the Fed does with interest rates. We actually need a much higher deficit - and will get one in all reality since most cuts will not occur as sold. The top tax rate under Trump is 37%, which is a bit less than half of the difference between the Bush rate of 35% and the Clinton and Obama rates of 39.6%. This rate applies to ordinary dividends, wages and short term capital gains (net for the year). Only celebrities pay these rates - from CEOs to sports and entertainment stars. The vast majority of income for the top 0.1% (the real wealthy - the rest of the top 1% work for a living as doctors and lawyers and such) get their income from qualified dividends and capital gains - while dividends and pass throughs take money from workers, capital gains do not - they are essentially gambling winnings.  Again, these rates need to go up as part of permanent law as they do not run out. The actual capital gains rate (before SM taxes funding Obamacare subsidies - which is 3.8% on non-wage income over $400,000 - Biden increased the threshold from the $200,000 in the original law) is 20% and has been since Bush 43. Obama did not change that rate - even though this is one of the main ways that the wealthy make money.

Business and capital gains rates (including dividends) should be 26% or so and be bipartisan and permanent. This will be enough to allow manageable increases to the deficit. The current rates allow the creation of junk in the stock markets. A 19.5% VAT or tariff is necessary to reduce the budget deficit (or less if carbon taxes are enacted and made visible on invoices) - but only if the child tax credit and minimum wage are increased as above, which would automatically increase social security payouts to enough that seniors and the disabled don't need additional income from work or other government benefits. You would know this if you followed by channel and read my fiscalequity.blogspot.com page, which contains my comments to the revenue committees through The Center for Fiscal Equity.