Our Dirty Little Secret: This is the Trump Economy

If you like high stock prices, downward pressure on wages and big bonuses for the donor class, then you like this economy. The really rich don't feel the current inflation - they drive it. They are outbidding the rest of us for the best stuff. They bid against each other and we lose. The break even point on whether you break even on inflation is the 90th percentile of households. If you are below that level (about $160,000 or so), you are making less in salary gains than prices are going up.  If you want to change that, let the Trump tax cuts expire at the end of next year - or kill them early - and double the minimum wage.  

I am not saying that we need to stick it to the rich - just stop the insurance and capital gains tax regime that taxes portfolios rather than each bet made.

When the bottom falls out of Exchange Traded Funds holding junk debt and crypto - and it will - we want Kamala in charge - not Trump! What he wants to do will inflate the balloon, not fix the economy - and certainly not inflation.

Who hates Eugene Vindman?

Many thanks to Open Secrets

HBR: HuntingtonBancshares family (founders), low return online bankers whose largest shareholder is now Black Rock, controlled by Stephen Scharzman and Peter Peterson of, Blackrock, Real Estate - Friends of Senate Minority Whip John Thune

American Patriots PAC (includes some Friends of Vlad)

Citadel, Hedge Fund, Kenneth Griffin

Elliott Management Hedge fund, Paul Singer founder,, John Pollock, CEO

Congressional leadership fund - the usual suspects

FTX.US, failed Crypto hedge fund managers,founded by  convicted felon Sam Bankman Fried

Jane Street Capital, CEO is Tim Reynolds, ETF traders

Cumberland Development bundling group, major funding by Americans for Prosperity (Koch), Duchoness and the Cumberland Group (funding itself?),  RNC, Sentinel Action Fund - Timothy Mellon (Trump mega donor), and Paradigm Operations (Crypto), Interactive Brokers Group - Milan Galik - online multinational investment) and 5 Republican congressional candidates ((Daniel Webster - friend of Vlad), (Ashley Hinson - supported Ukraine) (Ken Calvert - 100% pro-life, anti-Vlad)(John Barrasso, friend of Vlad)

Ending Spending Action Fund funded by Future45, funded by Ending Spending Action Fund - pro-Trump

Jackson Investment Group, Richard Jackson, derivatives trader

Third Point, LLC, vulture capitalist, Daniel Loeb

Garbage Can America or Trump's Self Loathing?

I trace some of my roots to not only the founding generation, (Lt. Thomas Allen and his cousin Silas), but to the first ships. My other ancestors were great or great-great grandparents. By comparison, Trump is fresh off the boat. On a real scale, White people are fresh off the boat. Mexican Americans are part of our First Nations population. They are not the immigrants, we are. They also have better food. Just saying. I like the melting pot and the salad metaphors. Trump is the mess. Vote accordingly.

Who Hates Angela Alsobrooks?

Who's saying such bad things about Angela? Do they love Larry Hogan or the State of Maryland? I looked at what organizations fund the Maryland Forward PAC, who are all up into Angela's business., with the help of Open Secrets. The donors behind the organizations listed are neither anti-abortion nor are they concerned with property tax justice issues, nor are they particular admirers of how Hogan governed Maryland.

Who they are and what they do:

Kenneth Griffin, Citadel, Hedge Fund

Stephen Scharzman, Blackrock, Real Estate

Peter Peterson, Blackrock, Real Estate

Duchhossis Family, Duchossis Capital Management, Hedge Fund

Warren Stephens, Stephens Inc., Investment Management

Donald Wilson, DRW Trading Group, Crypto and Exchange Traded Funds

Jim Frank, Frank Consolidated Enterprises, Wheels Inc corporare leasing

Henry Kravis, KKR, Private Equity

George Roberts, KKR,

Jerome Kohlberg, KKR,

Scott Nuttal, KKR,

Trevor Rees-Jones, Rees-Jones Holdings, Oil & Gas

Harlon Crow, Crow Holdings, Real Estate Investment

Perot Family, Hillwood Development,

Kenneth Langone, Ivened Associates, Portfolio Management Car loans

Winston & Strawn, Law Firm, Global Cartel Defense

Robert Lovelance, Capital Group, Hedge Fund

Thomas McInerney, Bluff Point Associates,

Russell Carson, Carson Family Charitable Trust, Private Equity

Will Paullette, KBS Ince, developers

Brian Chesky, Airbnb,

John & Robert Collet, Collet Associates , Real Estate

Michael Epstein, Willow Asset Management, Venture Capital in Potomac

and the common thread:

Again, Scharzman of Blackrock - power broker, NHA Action,

Supports Senator John Thune, GOP Whip, Commerce Science & Transportation Minority Leader

They want to put capitalism forward. This benefits them, not Maryland and certainly not you.

Trump's margins and official acts

Please share, comment, like and subscribe. Patreons are invited to group chats, livestreams and zoom calls to further discuss these issues once I figure out how to do these things. Make me by becoming a Patreonat https://www.patreon.com/CatholicRadical?fan_landing=true

Trump has fallen out of the race. His lawyers phoned in their response to the evidence attachment - and were right to do so as it was a nothing burger.  He is probably not going to make a deal before election day - or plead incompetent to stand trial. After? He's be crazy not to. 

The question is how badly he will lose. Likely voter samples are made using the last presidential election. Not a good move. The correct way to predict are to look at new registrations and the votes received by competitors in the primaries. This year, we only have to look at Republicans. After Haley dropped out, she still got at least 12% of the vote on average, before she got twice that. Apply THAT percentage in the primary to the 2020 GOP vote in each state. Add the number of no-Trumpers to the Harris total, along with new registrants for each party.

Assume Walz picks up the upper Midwest and mountain states. 

If there is any kind of reverse bandwagon effect, with Republican voters who are dispirited staying home and you come up against a possible 50 state plus DC landslide. Then Trump needs to decide whether to quit and put the GOP into crisis before the election or stay in and do so after.

Going back to his criminal case in DC. Because the filing last week was a nothing burger, we have no idea whether motive will be included in Trump's trial - that motive being hiding the official acts having to do with Putin (if he had known they were immune, he would have left the District quietly and given the Archives all his papers).

The only way these dealings were not official is if there was a quid pro quo on Russian funding of the Defend the House PAC in 2018. If there was, it was bribery - even if the acts were official. Regardless, the main question Trump's Russia acts highlighted was the extent to which foreign policy can be criminalized. I talk about this at

 https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2022/12/what-trump-was-hiding.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2022/09/the-special-master-and-ukraine.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2022/03/donny-and-vlad.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2021/10/trumpism-is-putinism.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2020/08/why-world-hates-king-donald.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2020/07/regarding-trump-and-stone.html

To restate from the July 2020:

Allowing Russia a zone of influence near its borders (a Monroe Doctrine, if you will) is not an idea originating with Trump. Is his presidential discretion wide enough to pursue such a policy, regardless of past doctrine?  This is another way of asking whether we wish to criminalize American foreign policy?.... 

.... Regardless, we must still address the issue of the criminality of the White House foreign policy.

Schiff should have followed the money trail, which in the Parnas and Fruman case has shown starts in Moscow, likely leads to Rudi and is alleged to fund the Trump Super PAC (thus benefiting much of the Senate impeachment jury). Let us hope this is not being saved as an October surprise. If McConnell moves Trump out of the way, it won't be of much use in going after Pence, who seems to have been mostly above the fray.

If McConnell fails to act, investigations must go on, which brings us back to Pandora and her box. How shall any Putin-Trump connection be played? Is it corruption or discretion. So far, only the corruption angle has been advanced. This has not worked with the GOP Senate or the electorate. If Trump is a traitor, it should be examined, but this will have implications for future presidents, including a President Schiff.

The question of whether Bin Laden was assassinated rather than being captured has criminal implications. Others have raised the question of the targeting of an American citizen who was part of Al Queda in the Arab Peninsula. Most come down on the side of presidential discretion. If we criminalize foreign policy, could it boomerang on our best president since Ike?

In my opinion, we need to open the box. Corruption is non-starter. It will not convince anyone in the Trump orbit that he did anything wrong. Unless Trump is pursued as a traitor - which I argue that he is - and the point is proven by a future DeutcheBank data dump on the Intelligence Committee - the nation will take a long time to heal. Not all Republican Trump supporters are his "fine people" who defend the Lost Cause. Continuing with Trump's criminality must lead to a knockout blow or it will be perceived as yet more partisanship, even if this means walking on the slippery slope.

Regarding Trump (and Stone) from July 2020

I wrote this in July of 2020. Except that Trump has piled on charges by his insurrection, the Supreme Court (after the fact) made doing so to cover up these crimes unnecessary. So far, Smith has not mentioned them. If you want to know why some Democrats are crying all the way to the bank - read this:

This is a follow-on to a previous essay about freeing Roger Stone, which Trump did earlier tonight.  My arguments in that essay have not really changed. Where some people see rule of law issues, others see using obstruction, et al, as a way to punish someone when their resistance to being investigated is easier to prove than whatever they were being investigated for. Perhaps, these "rule of law" penalties should only be imposed if the underlying crime is proved as well. A similar argument can be made on civil asset forfeiture. Instead of convicting someone of drug crimes, we just take their stuff in civil court. This might be a thing in dealing with Trump's financial crimes. Indeed, it would be apt punishment.

A more concrete way of putting the question is this: If Stone, et al, went to Hill & told whole story of Wikileaks, what crimes were committed by Trump campaign? Internet Research Agency members were indicted, but could anyone else have been? This is especially a question because, technically, Stone is a journalist, as is Wikileaks (who have not been charged with a crime in this incident). If going into this investigation, the FBI knew that no case was possible, is that investigation an abuse of power? The fact that the question can even be raised explains why Trump supporters are standing by their man.

Did Stone, Trump and the campaign do materially affect the outcome of the 2016 election?

No one who has been active in politics in this town was at all surprised that the Democratic National Committee had its thumb on the scales in the primary season. They pulled a similar trick in 2004 to get Kerry on the ballot. I know this because before primary season, I met a DNC staffer on Metro on the way home from work and asked her if Hillary was going to be the candidate. She said, no, it would be Kerry. This was way before Iowa.

The only way a Trump hack might have influenced the election is if the campaign had a copy of Clinton's briefing book and saw that her likely answer on partial birth abortion made her vulnerable. (Recall that Reagan had a copy of the Carter book in advance, with George Will using it to help prep the Gipper). The answer she gave to an issue that Trump raised in response to a different abortion question moved Catholic voters in the Midwest from the Obama column to the Trump column, with not inconsiderable aid from the swing state bishops.

If any matter should be investigated, any hacking of the briefing book should. The ultimate fault, however, is Clinton's for playing to a base she already had. Pro-Choice women were going to vote for her anyway in numbers. They would never be Clinton voters. Trump did not steal the election, she gave it away (putting Kaine on the ticket also left Obama voters on the table - oops).

Trump and Stone were pikers on dirty tricks. Nixon's minions kept Muskie out of the race and got McGovern and a huge landslide. The best tricks are to confound your opponents, not the voters. Back in 1994, I was asked by a friend to do a focus group of Ward 3 voters for the Sharon Pratt re-election campaign. Five of us were asked, with three seated. The survey firm was not very good - they actually told one of us (who is Black) that his people were going to be part of another group.

The punchline is that we were all John Ray supporters and gave responses that played into all of Madam Mayor's preconceived notions on how well she was doing. In the end, we all stated that we supported John - but the campaign showed that they still relied on what we said. John lost, because my future boss, Marion Barry, very quietly did an under the radar campaign in Ward 4 that led to a huge victory. Sharon came in third. As dirty tricks go, what we pulled off was a classic and had more of an impact on our race than anything Stone and Putin could engineer.

Also of note this week is the finding in Trump v. Vance that Citizen Trump deserves no special protection from his office in dealing with subpoenas to his accounting firm and banker regarding his personal financial dealings. The same information is also of interest as to whether Trump is compromised in his dealings with Russia prior to his election.

The Supreme Court declared that the similar Judiciary subpoenas were so broad as to be a fishing expedition, but put in procedures that can be navigated to explore the Russia link directly. Trump will find it harder to run out the clock if Chairman Schiff wishes to pursue the issue (which he should).

The question is then what and why are we investigating? The only Trump crime of any consequence is fealty to Putin. No one cares about campaign dirty tricks and they are not being prosecuted. If the Trump-Putin relationship falls under foreign policy discretion, what are we doing here? Why does anyone bother lying? Put another way, if Trump went to DC Federal Courthouse and detailed everything he actually did, what crime was committed?

Unless we face the question of espionage by Trump, this national soap opera is a sad farce on both sides. Unless the message about the Trump presidency does not go that deep, no Trumpsters will give up on their hero. This must be explained as more than partisanship on both sides. Not doing so is why impeachment failed.  If Schiff  cannot or will not point to an actual non-partisan crime, then half the nation will believe this has all been a witch hunt. That is not a good look for the nation. Indeed, it does exactly what Putin wants.

Allowing Russia a zone of influence near its borders (a Monroe Doctrine, if you will) is not an idea originating with Trump. Is his presidential discretion wide enough to pursue such a policy, regardless of past doctrine?  This is another way of asking whether we wish to criminalize American foreign policy?

We tried in Iran-Contra, however the investigation led to the overturn of Lt. Col. North's criminal conviction. The question remains, was violating the Boland Amendment a crime or a secret foreign policy?

The Ukraine affair is of a similar nature - although the system worked well enough to make sure the military aid was spent. The purported crime was election interference, but that interference would have, at worst, been one day event on Fox News. It amounts to a dirty trick, and a sloppy one at that.

The real issue with Urkaine is whether election interference was just the cover story, with Trump's real intention being to hang Ukraine out to dry and force a pro-Moscow settlement. Would doing so have been a crime or an act of presidential discretion. While the impeachment trial hinted at treasonous intent, it was not pursued convincingly enough for Republicans to have to vote to remove.

Some may even conclude that Senator Schumer and Chairman Schiff took a dive, that the entire impeachment was, essentially, an electoral stunt all its own - one that far exceeds the 15 minutes of fame on Fox News had the Ukrainian President been more cooperative.

President Bush took a pass at arresting Vice President Cheney when he attempted to force his own policy on torture on the Justice Department - who objected and went to the President. There is also the matter of war crimes ordered by Cheney and Rumsfeld. The Geneva Convention was not observed at Gitmo. The war may or may not have been about WMD. Regardless, Rummy lost the peace by firing all Baath party officers from the Iraqi Army, thus destroying the existing civil society in Iraq. When the Baathists fled to Syria, they just may have taken the WMD with them. That chemical weapons were used in Syria should be no surprise to anyone who can connect the dots.

The 2006 election was about a few things, but the failure of the peace, as detailed by Bob  Woodward in a book that came out just before the election, had a big part in the loss (as did GOP corruption). There was a real push to hold the President (or the Vice President), responsible for the debacle, but Speaker Pelosi would not go there. Doing so would have criminalized foreign policy.

Where do we draw the line once we open Pandora's Box? Iran-Contra was played as a rogue operation by the National Security Advisor and his Deputy. By that time, Reagan's dementia was likely far enough advanced that he had no involvement - and no one asked whether Vice President Bush was in the loop. This has always vexed me. History may provide an answer when we are all dead or we may never know.

We currently have a similarly demented President, although he seems to be active when he thinks it is in his interest. His niece paints a picture in her book of a learning disabled sociopath. The real constitutional crisis is that the Executive Branch is operating without the active participation of the elected President. What role is Vice President Pence playing in the operation of the government? He should at least be held to account for not invoking the 25th Amendment when Robert Mueller was appointed. What did he know and when did he know it on Russia? Was the cover story of Flynn being fired for lying to Pence itself a cover story? Did anyone ask?

This is important because Cy Vance (as well as the D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine) are now empowered to investigate Citizen Trump. Does Trump v. Vance imply the end to the OLC Memo? How can it not if the President is not above the law? If A.G. Barr is really the bright shiny object distracting Trump while SDNY and DC do their work, is it time for them to now go forward, indict and arrest Trump (before Vance and Racine can beat them to it)?

If we are lucky as a nation, Leader McConnell will realize that he and his band of rats need to jump off the U.S.S. Trump, thus forcing him to resign or to have Pence bench Trump and become both Acting President and the nominee. In this case, Vice President Biden needs to shift his attentions from the incompetence and criminality of Trump to the lack of moral courage and mixed motives of Pence. Regardless, we must still address the issue of the criminality of the White House foreign policy.

Schiff should have followed the money trail, which in the Parnas and Fruman case has shown starts in Moscow, likely leads to Rudi and is alleged to fund the Trump Super PAC (thus benefiting much of the Senate impeachment jury). Let us hope this is not being saved as an October surprise. If McConnell moves Trump out of the way, it won't be of much use in going after Pence, who seems to have been mostly above the fray.

If McConnell fails to act, investigations must go on, which brings us back to Pandora and her box. How shall any Putin-Trump connection be played? Is it corruption or discretion. So far, only the corruption angle has been advanced. This has not worked with the GOP Senate or the electorate. If Trump is a traitor, it should be examined, but this will have implications for future presidents, including a President Schiff.

The question of whether Bin Laden was assassinated rather than being captured has criminal implications. Others have raised the question of the targeting of an American citizen who was part of Al Queda in the Arab Peninsula. Most come down on the side of presidential discretion. If we criminalize foreign policy, could it boomerang on our best president since Ike?

In my opinion, we need to open the box. Corruption is non-starter. It will not convince anyone in the Trump orbit that he did anything wrong. Unless Trump is pursued as a traitor - which I argue that he is - and the point is proven by a future DeutcheBank data dump on the Intelligence Committee - the nation will take a long time to heal. Not all Republican Trump supporters are his "fine people" who defend the Lost Cause. Continuing with Trump's criminality must lead to a knockout blow or it will be perceived as yet more partisanship, even if this means walking on the slippery slope.

Dems need to keep the option not to seat Trump

Because it is there job to execute the 20th Amendment by naming Vance Acting President, because Trump is ineligible to serve under 14th. Talk about it now! Maybe not the Harris campaign, but at least among surrogates.

The Trump Dossier

Today, Jack Smith has released the heavily redacted version of the evidence against Trump. There will be no deal just yet. We will see if this information has an effect on his popularity. Regardless, he is in the race until election day, which is good for the GOP. Not so sure it is good for their congressional candidates,

Over the next few days or weeks, any information that may change the minds of voters will be highlighted by the media. Whether this changes the polls depends upon who is paying for the poll. GOP polls are mainly paid for by Trump. That practice has never won an election, although it may cast doubt on the result - or let Trump say so.

Trump cannot escape Rule 48A, which requires that the Court give permission for DOJ to drop the charges against Trump. Likewise, the 20th Amendment means that, even if Republican electors win, Trump cannot serve without 14th Amendment disqualifications being dealt with. Vance will be acting president if the relevant objection is allowed. Vance can also invoke the 25th Amendment as Trump declines.

Trump 2024 - Vance 2025.

Things could get very interesting.

An Emerging Neo-liberal majority

Are we at the end of history? The spectacular failure of the GOP House to govern makes it look that way, as does the extremism of Project 2025. Or it could be that the stupidity of certain people is trending to its natural conclusion.

Does the ruling class finally believe that the working class will self-divide without its help? Quite possibly, since the Freedom Caucus is putting the full faith and credit of the United States into question. For Capital, it may be time to risk a real centrist party and hope that the AOC and Jeffries branches of Congress never form common ground.

Common ground could be a libertarian socialist paradigm - especially after the old social conservative pro-birth, pro-gun, white nationalist wing dies out.

The environment, particularly how the South and Midwest are too hot in July to not make this the big issue, may find that common ground - although the neo-liberals, or Liberal Democrats may resist anything but cosmetic change.

Things will get interesting in January at the earliest - or maybe when and if Jack Smith starts rounding up members of the Freedom Caucus, or November 2026 at the latest. Stay tuned.

The Real Jan 6 Story - Are we live?

If you ask most people (including members of Congress) what the theme of Jan 6 was, they will answer an attempt to pressure (or hang) Mike Pence. Nope. That was the diversion. Here is the real story. 

The villain had henchmen plus his staff. The villain is on trial, the staff  and some henchmen are cooperating, and the others are quaking in their boots and will be dealt with soon.

There was an army of heroes, and army off fools and an army of goons (the latter two being a distraction).

There were three squads of enemy effectives, all of which are in prison now, save a dead tragic heroine and the villain’s greatest fear – the one who was key to events, but got a light sentence. We will hear more about him in a week or so.

There were two SWAT teams, whose names we may never know.

There were three heroes whose actions saved the day.

The first hero was the villain’s driver, who took him off the field before the action really started.

The second hero took one of the enemy squads up the Senate stairs into the arms of SWAT.

The third hero shot the tragic heroine (Ashli) – who almost made the day interesting had she and her squad had not been stopped. Instead, that squad was stopped by SWAT. It was on live TV.

The third Squad disengaged – many of them are in prison now and will rot there.

At that point, the Villian called in his staff and the army of fools left the building. After the staff acted, the goons were driven off by the army heroes. Many of the goons and fools were caught and jailed for a time, while some of the army of heroes were casualties.

On Friday the 11th, the villain lost in court because this story, from the point of view of those involved, will be released on Friday the 18th.  That this has happened is probably the most under-reported story of the Century.

He has been given 7 days to decide whether his followers care about the real story or surrender to the truth. That will be the most reported story of the Century.

'No financing mechanism': Trump proposes another tax cut

This tax cut is part of retaining the tax cuts that are expiring. It will not be paid for, just as the current tax cuts were not. The national debt increases to pay the interest on existing debt held by retirement funds, to finance the currency and to leverage high return hedge funds that finance the junk hiding in Exchange Traded Funds.

What will Haley do if Trump drops out?

Trump lawyers, possibly with House GOP lawyers, have until one week from 5 pm Thursday to file a brief blocking the release of evidence by Smith in DC trial. If they cite jury pool concerns, they may win. If they expand the redactions, they may succeed - especially if Smith agrees as a matter of courtesy, If they let Trump approach guide their filing, then on Friday of next week, there will be an evidence data dump.

Trump could stop the dump by starting negotiations to plead guilty. They will only last as long as they make an honest effort - which is doubtful. If Smith or Trump agree on terms, data dump will not occur. Evidence will be held until and unless it is used for other trials - but only evidence for those cases, plus any testimony Trump provides.

Then the question is whether Haley seeks or agrees to take over for Trump for November - assuming that the Republican National Committee choses her over Vance. Vance may bring home Haley's never Trumpers. Haley has a better chance. This is not a hard question to find out and pollsters should be looking.

The participants in the GOP primaries in Florida and Texas are a matter of public record. Survey them all and ask who voted for Haley. Ask those who did whether they will vote for Trump, Vance or Haley in November. The list of new registrants may or may not be public. If they are, ask them too.

Forget the other polls. This is the correct measure to see how Texas, and the entire election, will turn out. 

Getting the names from Texas may take between an hour or a day, depending on staff resources. There is no timeframe required to make the calls. The time takes what it takes - this is not a sample of current opinion - it is a population census or a random estimate of voters whose minds have been made up. Also ask these people how they would vote if Vance or Haley was the nominee.

Then ask Nikki if she will run, based on the result. Or ask her before you do the poll. The important question is "what will she do?" Someone needs to ask her - first quietly - then on a hot mike. #nikkihaley #jdvance #elections2024

JD won his own debate on being weird

Vance showed that, if Trump were to get out of the race, win and die in office or not defeat an objection to his election of 14th Amendment grounds, he would not be a total failure as President - indeed - he is the better alternative to Trump. The reason he has been playing dumb is because he learned his lesson from his military service: never outshine the boss. Tonight, he out shined Trump. Now, if anyone is weird, it's Donald - although it is getting to the point that dumping on a sick and failing old man for political sport is simply uncouth.  

There are more Nikki voters from the Texas primary plus new registrants to not have Texas go Blue - so the election is over. Vance will likely get more votes at the top than Trump, rather than suffer a 50 state loss - mostly on the strength of tonight's performance.

In other Trump news, his lawyers let Trump control the brief that was turned in to the DC Court - so no serious arguments were made. They cannot handle the redactions this way. There was a good reason to not redact anything, which is the danger of contaminating the jury pool.

Most of the nation (at least those who do not worship Trump) know his guilt well in advance of any evidence. If January 6 is a factor, it is already part of everyone's calculation - which is why Trump has no path to victory once the Nikki yes, Trump never faction of the GOP is considered. They are hard to find in polling, but their presence in the voting booth is already obvious.