An Emerging Neo-liberal majority

Are we at the end of history? The spectacular failure of the GOP House to govern makes it look that way, as does the extremism of Project 2025. Or it could be that the stupidity of certain people is trending to its natural conclusion.

Does the ruling class finally believe that the working class will self-divide without its help? Quite possibly, since the Freedom Caucus is putting the full faith and credit of the United States into question. For Capital, it may be time to risk a real centrist party and hope that the AOC and Jeffries branches of Congress never form common ground.

Common ground could be a libertarian socialist paradigm - especially after the old social conservative pro-birth, pro-gun, white nationalist wing dies out.

The environment, particularly how the South and Midwest are too hot in July to not make this the big issue, may find that common ground - although the neo-liberals, or Liberal Democrats may resist anything but cosmetic change.

Things will get interesting in January at the earliest - or maybe when and if Jack Smith starts rounding up members of the Freedom Caucus, or November 2026 at the latest. Stay tuned.

The Real Jan 6 Story - Are we live?

If you ask most people (including members of Congress) what the theme of Jan 6 was, they will answer an attempt to pressure (or hang) Mike Pence. Nope. That was the diversion. Here is the real story. 

The villain had henchmen plus his staff. The villain is on trial, the staff  and some henchmen are cooperating, and the others are quaking in their boots and will be dealt with soon.

There was an army of heroes, and army off fools and an army of goons (the latter two being a distraction).

There were three squads of enemy effectives, all of which are in prison now, save a dead tragic heroine and the villain’s greatest fear – the one who was key to events, but got a light sentence. We will hear more about him in a week or so.

There were two SWAT teams, whose names we may never know.

There were three heroes whose actions saved the day.

The first hero was the villain’s driver, who took him off the field before the action really started.

The second hero took one of the enemy squads up the Senate stairs into the arms of SWAT.

The third hero shot the tragic heroine (Ashli) – who almost made the day interesting had she and her squad had not been stopped. Instead, that squad was stopped by SWAT. It was on live TV.

The third Squad disengaged – many of them are in prison now and will rot there.

At that point, the Villian called in his staff and the army of fools left the building. After the staff acted, the goons were driven off by the army heroes. Many of the goons and fools were caught and jailed for a time, while some of the army of heroes were casualties.

On Friday the 11th, the villain lost in court because this story, from the point of view of those involved, will be released on Friday the 18th.  That this has happened is probably the most under-reported story of the Century.

He has been given 7 days to decide whether his followers care about the real story or surrender to the truth. That will be the most reported story of the Century.

'No financing mechanism': Trump proposes another tax cut

This tax cut is part of retaining the tax cuts that are expiring. It will not be paid for, just as the current tax cuts were not. The national debt increases to pay the interest on existing debt held by retirement funds, to finance the currency and to leverage high return hedge funds that finance the junk hiding in Exchange Traded Funds.

What will Haley do if Trump drops out?

Trump lawyers, possibly with House GOP lawyers, have until one week from 5 pm Thursday to file a brief blocking the release of evidence by Smith in DC trial. If they cite jury pool concerns, they may win. If they expand the redactions, they may succeed - especially if Smith agrees as a matter of courtesy, If they let Trump approach guide their filing, then on Friday of next week, there will be an evidence data dump.

Trump could stop the dump by starting negotiations to plead guilty. They will only last as long as they make an honest effort - which is doubtful. If Smith or Trump agree on terms, data dump will not occur. Evidence will be held until and unless it is used for other trials - but only evidence for those cases, plus any testimony Trump provides.

Then the question is whether Haley seeks or agrees to take over for Trump for November - assuming that the Republican National Committee choses her over Vance. Vance may bring home Haley's never Trumpers. Haley has a better chance. This is not a hard question to find out and pollsters should be looking.

The participants in the GOP primaries in Florida and Texas are a matter of public record. Survey them all and ask who voted for Haley. Ask those who did whether they will vote for Trump, Vance or Haley in November. The list of new registrants may or may not be public. If they are, ask them too.

Forget the other polls. This is the correct measure to see how Texas, and the entire election, will turn out. 

Getting the names from Texas may take between an hour or a day, depending on staff resources. There is no timeframe required to make the calls. The time takes what it takes - this is not a sample of current opinion - it is a population census or a random estimate of voters whose minds have been made up. Also ask these people how they would vote if Vance or Haley was the nominee.

Then ask Nikki if she will run, based on the result. Or ask her before you do the poll. The important question is "what will she do?" Someone needs to ask her - first quietly - then on a hot mike. #nikkihaley #jdvance #elections2024

JD won his own debate on being weird

Vance showed that, if Trump were to get out of the race, win and die in office or not defeat an objection to his election of 14th Amendment grounds, he would not be a total failure as President - indeed - he is the better alternative to Trump. The reason he has been playing dumb is because he learned his lesson from his military service: never outshine the boss. Tonight, he out shined Trump. Now, if anyone is weird, it's Donald - although it is getting to the point that dumping on a sick and failing old man for political sport is simply uncouth.  

There are more Nikki voters from the Texas primary plus new registrants to not have Texas go Blue - so the election is over. Vance will likely get more votes at the top than Trump, rather than suffer a 50 state loss - mostly on the strength of tonight's performance.

In other Trump news, his lawyers let Trump control the brief that was turned in to the DC Court - so no serious arguments were made. They cannot handle the redactions this way. There was a good reason to not redact anything, which is the danger of contaminating the jury pool.

Most of the nation (at least those who do not worship Trump) know his guilt well in advance of any evidence. If January 6 is a factor, it is already part of everyone's calculation - which is why Trump has no path to victory once the Nikki yes, Trump never faction of the GOP is considered. They are hard to find in polling, but their presence in the voting booth is already obvious.