News from Nov 13 points 1 and 2

Point One – Kamala lost the election the way Hillary did, by focusing so much on abortion that Swing State Catholics who are on the edge went the other way. Some are pro-life, some are pro-choice and the mushy middle swing – particularly in the Midwest. In 2008, I got a message to Alice Germond, who I had worked for at NARAL, to not let Barack focus on abortion. They took the advice and Obama got elected – promising to begin talks on late term abortion rules beyond the extant law. To prevent any compromise, the Bishops retaliated with the FOCA hoax to build up their mailing list for 2010.

In 2016, the Catholic bishops conspired with Trump, who conspired with the Internet Research Agency to get and exploit Hillary’s views on partial birth abortion. Hillary should have said, when asked, that Partial Birth Abortion was already illegal. She did not – rather she justified why it might be important. Oops.

This year, too much attention was spent on getting the liberal women she already had, rather than explaining that Trump’s policies put too much money into the hands of higher income individuals, who had the juice to outbid everyone else for food and housing. Voters would have understood such an explanation. This would have been a great time to mention that Manchin and Sinema had blocked ending the Trump tax cuts – so the 2024 economy was his, not Joe’s.

Just today, the government announced that inflation is up. This statistic measures what was happening in the period of time just before the election. Oops again!

Point Two Today the Republicans officially took the House. Just as home prices and the stock market are topping – largely due to the 2018 cuts. Congratulations, you caught the car. The only way to get things back on track is to deflate the speculation sector (or have the Fed put so much credit into circulation to sink the dollar) – and the way to do that without hurting the economy is to increase tax rates on capital returns (dividends, interest and pass-through income) and on gains. 

If the Republican Party wants to repay its voters, it needs to grow the consumer economy.  Higher taxes on capital will do this on its own. To do more, increase the minimum wage. In 2021, the GOP offered $10. $13 has the same purchasing power – $14 if the workday is shortened to 7 hours and the week to 4 days. This will get discouraged workers off the couch and their parent’s basements. 

The main thing on the agenda is tax reform. Increase the child tax credit to what VP Harris proposed – either in the lame duck so that she can sign it twice (as President of the Senate and then as President when Biden retires early). President Trump doubled the child credit in 2018. Families need it to double again and become refundable. 

It won’t be inflationary. Inflation follows the 90th percentile – not the working class. Giving the working class more money to spend will lead to more spending but not more inflation (until this leads to higher profits – and it will).

We have all of 2025 to work on the rest of tax reform. With both houses and a White House staff which will let Trump have a seat at the table, we need to give it to him. Job one is to get everyone behind a Goods and Services Tax instead of Tariffs – because giving the President enough control over the agenda to end his go-to practice of exercising power in the one way he could in the age of Pelosi. 

If part of enacting a VAT is removing the requirement for personal income tax filing for the vast majority of American families, - as suggested by Michael Graetz, the GOP will reap the benefits of those optics. Channel the child tax credit through wages by including it as an offset to an additional net business receipts tax, aka the Japanese subtraction VAT – as suggested by Lawrence B. Lindsey. Any additional surtax on higher rate individuals can be channeled through this tax. After the offsets to the tax for family income and health care coverage and reform, the surtax could top out between 20 and 26 percent in net revenue gain. To pay down the debt, sell tax prepayment bonds to either high income individuals or their employers – as I suggested to President Reagan and Senator Jepsen in 1984 as I was coming to DC as an intern. 

The only fly in the ointment is capital gains taxation. To transfer collecting this revenue to employers would require more disclosure than anyone wants their CEO or Board of Directors to know about. The alternative is an asset value added tax, which would also end the death tax entirely, although asset sales would be marked to market if sold after inheritance -but zero rated for ESOP sales.

Call this all the Fair Tax, option 2.0, which ends the need to restart Welfare to give money to poor households rather than including it with pay through the NBRT. If the states collect the credit invoice and subtraction VATs and the SEC collects the Asset VAT, Trump will be known as the President who abolished the IRS.

News from Nov 13 Point 3

There are ways, which will not be used, to object to the seating of those members of Congress who cooperated with the capital insurrection. Mr. Jefferson’s Manual is the controlling procedure, which provides for objecting to members of the House taking the oath. This is too late to stop an insurrectionist speaker from being elected (such as someone who was rounding up members to join lawsuits to overturn the election). Also, at any time, members could have submitted names of these members to the Ethics Committee to investigate their involvement to the events of that day. They still can. 

The Select Committee on the January 6th Insurrection should have submitted names as the involvement of members was discovered (such as the members of the House who met with President Trump in December 2020). They could have also asked the bipartisan Ethics Committee to add investigating insurrection to their rules – both regarding members and presidents elect. 

When the Committee reports out each case, instead of requiring a two-thirds majority to expel the member or to invoke the 20th Amendment making the vice president elect the acting president, a two thirds majority of each house would be required to seat the member or president-elect.

 In neither case would this change the partisan majority in the House, whose voters would have likely replaced the expelled members with another Republican. The president elect would be replaced by the VP elect, who will also be acting president if Trump’s mental and physical health continues to decline.

These steps would take courage – especially as they have no electoral benefit (except regarding Ron Johnson or others Republican senators with Democratic Governors. Ted Cruz’s seat would still be Republican, as would many insurrectionist Senators. I don’t expect Democratic members to show such leadership without electoral benefit.

It would take even more courage for Republicans to police themselves – especially regarding Gabbard and Gaetz. Are they serious?

About the Court and the numbering of presidents

Remember the case last summer where the presumption of fact by the government was overturned in environmental law? Not such a bad thing in a Trump second term. Trial Courts now have to decide on facts put forward by environmentalist lawyers. Which was the old standard from when I was taking Administrative Law in Grad School. Every regulation will be settled in Court in a way that could not have been done previous to las summer's ruling. At the time, I said this. Now I can say - I told you so!

The next two justices to go will be Alito and Thomas. They will be replaced with more modern law school graduates and professors. The clock will not be rolled back on social issues. Indeed, the reason affirmative action plans keep getting swatted down is because they are crap. 

Go with random selection of the middle group of applicants (not sure stars or sure failures) and dare people not to sue if legacies are left out of the random pool.

The other "don't be afraid" thing is the child tax credit. It is supported bipartisanly and it needs to be passed during the lame duck. We can even add a sweetener for the Vice President by putting at least some of what she campaigned on into the bill. Assuming she is not the President at some point between now and January 20th.

So Trump is likely to be 48, not 47. Vance will then be 49 due to actuarial factors. From 2001 to 2016, we had two presidents. From 2016 to 2032, we will almost assuredly we will likely have six - unless Vance is elected in his own right in 2028. I am counting Trump twice, because that is how we number regimes.

My note to Joe

 Some items to go out with a bang.

Call a special session to pass the bipartisan immigration reform and child tax credit bills or make sure that they get passed so Trump can sign them as is.

Pardon all undocumented immigrants for any crimes committed that get in the way of their applying for legal status.

Pardon Hunter. He did not deserve what happened to him or

Have Kamala do it. You know that you can make her the first female president - just by retiring early.

Paperwork crimes of Donald Trump

Was Trump involved in the plot to coerce members of Congress to support his stupidly planned plot? Yes. Did either Smith or the Congress do what was necessary to prove it? No. They went after election interference rather than the link to Russia or the violent plot. Prosecutors take the path of least resistance - and that path can be explained away under dirty tricks - just like the perfect phone call with Zaleski.  The actual crime was obstructing missiles to Ukraine as a flavor to Putin. Now the latter is an official act. The documents that Trump took that were classified will be declassified on January 20th. Preventing these from being used against him was why we had an insurrection and have a documents case. 

Official Washington does not like the idea of criminalizing foreign policy. That has been the unofficial policy since the Louisiana Purchase and the raid on the Barbary Pirates. The Supreme Court merely codified what is current practice and has been for over 200 years. 

Again, the cases against Trump were all about bad and fraudulent paperwork - essentially dirty tricks. If the actual knowledge of the violent plot had been prosecuted and the reasons behind it, the charges going away would be a scandal to dismiss. Plots to do bad political theater - especially when both plots (Ukraine and Stopping the Steal) were unsuccessful and entirely pathetic were not seen as important by the Senate Republicans who did not vote to convict.

I have done much better dirty tricks - ones that actually worked and were never noticed. So have most members of the Senate - on both sides.

Is attempting a dirty trick that had no possible way of working really a crime? Voters did not think so. Trump won this election fair and square by expanding his base. I have seen that done too. My career is based on it.

We're going to Mars and compromising on abortion

A few things Trump will likely do:

Make a deal on abortion that gores the oxen on both sides (compromise is the enemy of fundraising) with fetal hospice after the point that a child can be born - sometime between 6 and 15 weeks - and legal abortion before that. Trump is personally pro-choice and term-limited. A compromise would be a huge win.

Elon Musk will get lots of money, as will any practical solution to very demonstrable global warming. Defense will get less, but defense industries will get a net gain. A permanent lunar colony is the real bonus - as something on the far side of the moon may see the asteroid that could kill us all.

Wall Street will not let the coming recession become a depression - note that Dodd Frank worked during the pandemic's engineered recession. Also, the Republicans don't interfere with the debt limit when they are in charge. Taxes on capital will probably go up, - an asset value added tax is the best method - because if the debt is unacceptably high, this is the only place to find the money.  

Obamacare subsidies and the child tax credit may be made adequate by a subtraction VAT paid by employees - in exchange for scrapping the corporate profits tax. The. minimum wage will be doubled.- or at least raised to $12 per hour, as a reward to the Donnie Bros. They need to ask, however, and do so quickly. Instead of tariffs, do a goods and services tax that is border adjustable. Its the same thing as a tariff, without the retaliation - and it can be paid for by ending income taxes for all income under $110,000 per year.

If you want Trump to be great, share this video with Elon Musk and Joe Rogan.

Loose ends for Joe to do

1. Pardon undocumented migrants for any crimes committed by entering country.

2. Pardon Hunter

3. Call a Special Session to pass immigration and child tax credit compromises.

4. Resign and make Kamala 47th President.

Did Trump (or Vance) catch the car?

Unless one of the states called for Trump is changed to Blue, he is on the way to being 47. Since his side won the Senate,  his AG pick will be confirmed, absent some miracle. Susan Collins owes us one, which means Smith can be fired. The only saving the country is that Judge Chutkan must approve any DOJ motion to end the Trump trial in DC and (once the 11th Circuit puts the case on track) in Florida. 

God help Ukraine. 

Now the question is what to do with Trump as President. The economy Trump created with his tax cuts is still doomed to fail. The Dow is too high and housing prices are about to fall, putting Americans underwater on their mortgages again.

If Trump is found guilty in Florida (and he is dead to rights), he is not legally allowed to be president under the law once convicted of holding classified documents.

Under the 20th Amendment, Vance should still be named acting President if a 14th Amendment objection to Trump is upheld. The Democrats should have worked this out instead of hoping for electoral victory. Oops!

Trump is not getting any healthier. Winning does not add a day to one's life. If he dies before inauguration, the question for JD Vance is what he will do. Maybe he is the  one who caught the car.

About the Senate

Losing Joe Manchin is not a Democratic loss. Losing Sinema to Gallego is a pickup. If John Tester loses, then we are even on the night.

Jack Smith and God still have to vote on Senatorial insurrectionists - although getting rid of Cruz means that Abbott gets to appoint his replacement. Ron Johnson and Rand Paul need to be nervous - and Mitch is still ancient. All three of those Senators have Democratic Governors.

DC statehood would add two Democrats. Sadly, Hawley may win - although I still have hopes that Big Mo will surprise the AP.

Trump's "I can fix it" ad - weird to the end

Probably the most fascist political ad I have ever seen.  I can see why he approved that message.

Dobbs probably cost him the election, although people started souring on him in 2018. In 2020, never-Trump Republicans left President blank and voted down ballot. Some also voted Republican or stayed home in 2022. The antics of electing a Speaker and the resulting crap show, with 60% of the caucus voting with Trump's faction leading to the never Trumpers likely voting down ballot for Democrats this time. The GOP died when they did not vote for Boehner on the first ballot. The writing has been on the wall since then.

There are other reasons besides Dobbs to vote against Trump. Let's list them.

Border crossings are now down, largely due to Biden doing by executive order what the bipartisan compromise would have put into law - but Trump had the GOP walk away from. Immigration is  largely out of White House control and has more to do with Trump not giving aid to the region after hurricanes, as well as the long standing policy of sending convicts back to their home countries - where they destabilized them. The problems at the border and the responses are ground level/bottom up, not top down. The failures are bipartisan and the response is mostly driven by the permanent government at Homeland Security.

Biden is not responsible for sending migrants to New York and other sanctuary cities. That was DeSantis and Abbott, who put people on busses rather than working with the Federal Government to house migrant families in a coordinated manner. BLAME THE GOP for this. The campaign did not bring this up - probably because Dobbs and Trump's emotional dysfunction were lower hanging fruit.

Inflation for the masses came because prices chase the median dollar of income, which is at more than $160,000 per year. If you make less, inflation is hurting. The reason that number is so high is the Trump 2018 tax cuts, not the money given to families during the pandemic. These payments let workers stay away long enough to get better wages and jobs - but plenty did not and are now suffering.  

The rising Dow is a function of the Exchange Traded Funds holding junk assets being bid up before the tax cuts expire at the end of next year.  Because Democrats want to have their cake and eat it too - these arguments were not made. The economy will not crash - and may be crashing even as I write this - but it won't be apparent until next year. The response must be to raise taxes on the wealthy ASAP, not use the slow-down as a reason not keep the Trump cuts in place. Taking money from the Savings Sector is the only way to fix the current economy. Keep Larry Summers away from the White House and we should be OK. Again, the problem is that it is easier to go after the low hanging fruit. Also, most Democratic economists are probably in the dark about what is really happening - which is not a good thing.

The Biden plan was to repeal the Trump cuts in 2021-2022, but Manchin and Sinema sabotaged the bill - so this is truly a Trump economy. It would be worse without the stimulus payments.  Workers are still mostly hurting - but the asset inflation goosing the markets came from Trump, Manchin and Sinema, not Biden. 

Trump did not cause the COVID deaths. Masking did not stop the disease, nor would it have. COVID round one was from people sneezing on their friends and family, thinking it was allergies. The WHO and CDC did not notice. The deaths were on them, not Trump, although a White House staff which focused on more than Trump's image may have caught the error. The Manchin-Pelosi bailout kept the world going, not Trump. He does get credit for supporting vaccine research - by staying out of the way of the NIH. He bumbled his way into success on this. Also, Manchin is a major landlord. The stimulus, with supporting Federal Reserve action, helped him the most.

Blaming Trump for the pandemic is not really true. It is also low hanging fruit, however.

If the GOP establishment had not been taken over by MAGA and Coney-Barrett been appointed to the Court - thus preventing Dobbs - Trump would not have been the nominee and Dobbs would not have been an issue. Haley would likely have been the nominee and the result would be very different next week, although Vice President Harris is an excellent candidate and deserves the upcoming win. Still, if Trump had been trying to destroy the Republican Party from within, he could not have done a better job. 

Lastly, the Ad should not have run in DC Metro. There are no Trump votes in Northern Virginia, suburban Maryland, DC or Delaware. If it is a national ad buy, it will hurt Trump more than help him. Weird to the end.

Our Dirty Little Secret: This is the Trump Economy

If you like high stock prices, downward pressure on wages and big bonuses for the donor class, then you like this economy. The really rich don't feel the current inflation - they drive it. They are outbidding the rest of us for the best stuff. They bid against each other and we lose. The break even point on whether you break even on inflation is the 90th percentile of households. If you are below that level (about $160,000 or so), you are making less in salary gains than prices are going up.  If you want to change that, let the Trump tax cuts expire at the end of next year - or kill them early - and double the minimum wage.  

I am not saying that we need to stick it to the rich - just stop the insurance and capital gains tax regime that taxes portfolios rather than each bet made.

When the bottom falls out of Exchange Traded Funds holding junk debt and crypto - and it will - we want Kamala in charge - not Trump! What he wants to do will inflate the balloon, not fix the economy - and certainly not inflation.

Who hates Eugene Vindman?

Many thanks to Open Secrets

HBR: HuntingtonBancshares family (founders), low return online bankers whose largest shareholder is now Black Rock, controlled by Stephen Scharzman and Peter Peterson of, Blackrock, Real Estate - Friends of Senate Minority Whip John Thune

American Patriots PAC (includes some Friends of Vlad)

Citadel, Hedge Fund, Kenneth Griffin

Elliott Management Hedge fund, Paul Singer founder,, John Pollock, CEO

Congressional leadership fund - the usual suspects

FTX.US, failed Crypto hedge fund managers,founded by  convicted felon Sam Bankman Fried

Jane Street Capital, CEO is Tim Reynolds, ETF traders

Cumberland Development bundling group, major funding by Americans for Prosperity (Koch), Duchoness and the Cumberland Group (funding itself?),  RNC, Sentinel Action Fund - Timothy Mellon (Trump mega donor), and Paradigm Operations (Crypto), Interactive Brokers Group - Milan Galik - online multinational investment) and 5 Republican congressional candidates ((Daniel Webster - friend of Vlad), (Ashley Hinson - supported Ukraine) (Ken Calvert - 100% pro-life, anti-Vlad)(John Barrasso, friend of Vlad)

Ending Spending Action Fund funded by Future45, funded by Ending Spending Action Fund - pro-Trump

Jackson Investment Group, Richard Jackson, derivatives trader

Third Point, LLC, vulture capitalist, Daniel Loeb

Garbage Can America or Trump's Self Loathing?

I trace some of my roots to not only the founding generation, (Lt. Thomas Allen and his cousin Silas), but to the first ships. My other ancestors were great or great-great grandparents. By comparison, Trump is fresh off the boat. On a real scale, White people are fresh off the boat. Mexican Americans are part of our First Nations population. They are not the immigrants, we are. They also have better food. Just saying. I like the melting pot and the salad metaphors. Trump is the mess. Vote accordingly.

Who Hates Angela Alsobrooks?

Who's saying such bad things about Angela? Do they love Larry Hogan or the State of Maryland? I looked at what organizations fund the Maryland Forward PAC, who are all up into Angela's business., with the help of Open Secrets. The donors behind the organizations listed are neither anti-abortion nor are they concerned with property tax justice issues, nor are they particular admirers of how Hogan governed Maryland.

Who they are and what they do:

Kenneth Griffin, Citadel, Hedge Fund

Stephen Scharzman, Blackrock, Real Estate

Peter Peterson, Blackrock, Real Estate

Duchhossis Family, Duchossis Capital Management, Hedge Fund

Warren Stephens, Stephens Inc., Investment Management

Donald Wilson, DRW Trading Group, Crypto and Exchange Traded Funds

Jim Frank, Frank Consolidated Enterprises, Wheels Inc corporare leasing

Henry Kravis, KKR, Private Equity

George Roberts, KKR,

Jerome Kohlberg, KKR,

Scott Nuttal, KKR,

Trevor Rees-Jones, Rees-Jones Holdings, Oil & Gas

Harlon Crow, Crow Holdings, Real Estate Investment

Perot Family, Hillwood Development,

Kenneth Langone, Ivened Associates, Portfolio Management Car loans

Winston & Strawn, Law Firm, Global Cartel Defense

Robert Lovelance, Capital Group, Hedge Fund

Thomas McInerney, Bluff Point Associates,

Russell Carson, Carson Family Charitable Trust, Private Equity

Will Paullette, KBS Ince, developers

Brian Chesky, Airbnb,

John & Robert Collet, Collet Associates , Real Estate

Michael Epstein, Willow Asset Management, Venture Capital in Potomac

and the common thread:

Again, Scharzman of Blackrock - power broker, NHA Action,

Supports Senator John Thune, GOP Whip, Commerce Science & Transportation Minority Leader

They want to put capitalism forward. This benefits them, not Maryland and certainly not you.

Trump's margins and official acts

Please share, comment, like and subscribe. Patreons are invited to group chats, livestreams and zoom calls to further discuss these issues once I figure out how to do these things. Make me by becoming a Patreonat https://www.patreon.com/CatholicRadical?fan_landing=true

Trump has fallen out of the race. His lawyers phoned in their response to the evidence attachment - and were right to do so as it was a nothing burger.  He is probably not going to make a deal before election day - or plead incompetent to stand trial. After? He's be crazy not to. 

The question is how badly he will lose. Likely voter samples are made using the last presidential election. Not a good move. The correct way to predict are to look at new registrations and the votes received by competitors in the primaries. This year, we only have to look at Republicans. After Haley dropped out, she still got at least 12% of the vote on average, before she got twice that. Apply THAT percentage in the primary to the 2020 GOP vote in each state. Add the number of no-Trumpers to the Harris total, along with new registrants for each party.

Assume Walz picks up the upper Midwest and mountain states. 

If there is any kind of reverse bandwagon effect, with Republican voters who are dispirited staying home and you come up against a possible 50 state plus DC landslide. Then Trump needs to decide whether to quit and put the GOP into crisis before the election or stay in and do so after.

Going back to his criminal case in DC. Because the filing last week was a nothing burger, we have no idea whether motive will be included in Trump's trial - that motive being hiding the official acts having to do with Putin (if he had known they were immune, he would have left the District quietly and given the Archives all his papers).

The only way these dealings were not official is if there was a quid pro quo on Russian funding of the Defend the House PAC in 2018. If there was, it was bribery - even if the acts were official. Regardless, the main question Trump's Russia acts highlighted was the extent to which foreign policy can be criminalized. I talk about this at

 https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2022/12/what-trump-was-hiding.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2022/09/the-special-master-and-ukraine.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2022/03/donny-and-vlad.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2021/10/trumpism-is-putinism.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2020/08/why-world-hates-king-donald.html

https://xianleft.blogspot.com/2020/07/regarding-trump-and-stone.html

To restate from the July 2020:

Allowing Russia a zone of influence near its borders (a Monroe Doctrine, if you will) is not an idea originating with Trump. Is his presidential discretion wide enough to pursue such a policy, regardless of past doctrine?  This is another way of asking whether we wish to criminalize American foreign policy?.... 

.... Regardless, we must still address the issue of the criminality of the White House foreign policy.

Schiff should have followed the money trail, which in the Parnas and Fruman case has shown starts in Moscow, likely leads to Rudi and is alleged to fund the Trump Super PAC (thus benefiting much of the Senate impeachment jury). Let us hope this is not being saved as an October surprise. If McConnell moves Trump out of the way, it won't be of much use in going after Pence, who seems to have been mostly above the fray.

If McConnell fails to act, investigations must go on, which brings us back to Pandora and her box. How shall any Putin-Trump connection be played? Is it corruption or discretion. So far, only the corruption angle has been advanced. This has not worked with the GOP Senate or the electorate. If Trump is a traitor, it should be examined, but this will have implications for future presidents, including a President Schiff.

The question of whether Bin Laden was assassinated rather than being captured has criminal implications. Others have raised the question of the targeting of an American citizen who was part of Al Queda in the Arab Peninsula. Most come down on the side of presidential discretion. If we criminalize foreign policy, could it boomerang on our best president since Ike?

In my opinion, we need to open the box. Corruption is non-starter. It will not convince anyone in the Trump orbit that he did anything wrong. Unless Trump is pursued as a traitor - which I argue that he is - and the point is proven by a future DeutcheBank data dump on the Intelligence Committee - the nation will take a long time to heal. Not all Republican Trump supporters are his "fine people" who defend the Lost Cause. Continuing with Trump's criminality must lead to a knockout blow or it will be perceived as yet more partisanship, even if this means walking on the slippery slope.

Regarding Trump (and Stone) from July 2020

I wrote this in July of 2020. Except that Trump has piled on charges by his insurrection, the Supreme Court (after the fact) made doing so to cover up these crimes unnecessary. So far, Smith has not mentioned them. If you want to know why some Democrats are crying all the way to the bank - read this:

This is a follow-on to a previous essay about freeing Roger Stone, which Trump did earlier tonight.  My arguments in that essay have not really changed. Where some people see rule of law issues, others see using obstruction, et al, as a way to punish someone when their resistance to being investigated is easier to prove than whatever they were being investigated for. Perhaps, these "rule of law" penalties should only be imposed if the underlying crime is proved as well. A similar argument can be made on civil asset forfeiture. Instead of convicting someone of drug crimes, we just take their stuff in civil court. This might be a thing in dealing with Trump's financial crimes. Indeed, it would be apt punishment.

A more concrete way of putting the question is this: If Stone, et al, went to Hill & told whole story of Wikileaks, what crimes were committed by Trump campaign? Internet Research Agency members were indicted, but could anyone else have been? This is especially a question because, technically, Stone is a journalist, as is Wikileaks (who have not been charged with a crime in this incident). If going into this investigation, the FBI knew that no case was possible, is that investigation an abuse of power? The fact that the question can even be raised explains why Trump supporters are standing by their man.

Did Stone, Trump and the campaign do materially affect the outcome of the 2016 election?

No one who has been active in politics in this town was at all surprised that the Democratic National Committee had its thumb on the scales in the primary season. They pulled a similar trick in 2004 to get Kerry on the ballot. I know this because before primary season, I met a DNC staffer on Metro on the way home from work and asked her if Hillary was going to be the candidate. She said, no, it would be Kerry. This was way before Iowa.

The only way a Trump hack might have influenced the election is if the campaign had a copy of Clinton's briefing book and saw that her likely answer on partial birth abortion made her vulnerable. (Recall that Reagan had a copy of the Carter book in advance, with George Will using it to help prep the Gipper). The answer she gave to an issue that Trump raised in response to a different abortion question moved Catholic voters in the Midwest from the Obama column to the Trump column, with not inconsiderable aid from the swing state bishops.

If any matter should be investigated, any hacking of the briefing book should. The ultimate fault, however, is Clinton's for playing to a base she already had. Pro-Choice women were going to vote for her anyway in numbers. They would never be Clinton voters. Trump did not steal the election, she gave it away (putting Kaine on the ticket also left Obama voters on the table - oops).

Trump and Stone were pikers on dirty tricks. Nixon's minions kept Muskie out of the race and got McGovern and a huge landslide. The best tricks are to confound your opponents, not the voters. Back in 1994, I was asked by a friend to do a focus group of Ward 3 voters for the Sharon Pratt re-election campaign. Five of us were asked, with three seated. The survey firm was not very good - they actually told one of us (who is Black) that his people were going to be part of another group.

The punchline is that we were all John Ray supporters and gave responses that played into all of Madam Mayor's preconceived notions on how well she was doing. In the end, we all stated that we supported John - but the campaign showed that they still relied on what we said. John lost, because my future boss, Marion Barry, very quietly did an under the radar campaign in Ward 4 that led to a huge victory. Sharon came in third. As dirty tricks go, what we pulled off was a classic and had more of an impact on our race than anything Stone and Putin could engineer.

Also of note this week is the finding in Trump v. Vance that Citizen Trump deserves no special protection from his office in dealing with subpoenas to his accounting firm and banker regarding his personal financial dealings. The same information is also of interest as to whether Trump is compromised in his dealings with Russia prior to his election.

The Supreme Court declared that the similar Judiciary subpoenas were so broad as to be a fishing expedition, but put in procedures that can be navigated to explore the Russia link directly. Trump will find it harder to run out the clock if Chairman Schiff wishes to pursue the issue (which he should).

The question is then what and why are we investigating? The only Trump crime of any consequence is fealty to Putin. No one cares about campaign dirty tricks and they are not being prosecuted. If the Trump-Putin relationship falls under foreign policy discretion, what are we doing here? Why does anyone bother lying? Put another way, if Trump went to DC Federal Courthouse and detailed everything he actually did, what crime was committed?

Unless we face the question of espionage by Trump, this national soap opera is a sad farce on both sides. Unless the message about the Trump presidency does not go that deep, no Trumpsters will give up on their hero. This must be explained as more than partisanship on both sides. Not doing so is why impeachment failed.  If Schiff  cannot or will not point to an actual non-partisan crime, then half the nation will believe this has all been a witch hunt. That is not a good look for the nation. Indeed, it does exactly what Putin wants.

Allowing Russia a zone of influence near its borders (a Monroe Doctrine, if you will) is not an idea originating with Trump. Is his presidential discretion wide enough to pursue such a policy, regardless of past doctrine?  This is another way of asking whether we wish to criminalize American foreign policy?

We tried in Iran-Contra, however the investigation led to the overturn of Lt. Col. North's criminal conviction. The question remains, was violating the Boland Amendment a crime or a secret foreign policy?

The Ukraine affair is of a similar nature - although the system worked well enough to make sure the military aid was spent. The purported crime was election interference, but that interference would have, at worst, been one day event on Fox News. It amounts to a dirty trick, and a sloppy one at that.

The real issue with Urkaine is whether election interference was just the cover story, with Trump's real intention being to hang Ukraine out to dry and force a pro-Moscow settlement. Would doing so have been a crime or an act of presidential discretion. While the impeachment trial hinted at treasonous intent, it was not pursued convincingly enough for Republicans to have to vote to remove.

Some may even conclude that Senator Schumer and Chairman Schiff took a dive, that the entire impeachment was, essentially, an electoral stunt all its own - one that far exceeds the 15 minutes of fame on Fox News had the Ukrainian President been more cooperative.

President Bush took a pass at arresting Vice President Cheney when he attempted to force his own policy on torture on the Justice Department - who objected and went to the President. There is also the matter of war crimes ordered by Cheney and Rumsfeld. The Geneva Convention was not observed at Gitmo. The war may or may not have been about WMD. Regardless, Rummy lost the peace by firing all Baath party officers from the Iraqi Army, thus destroying the existing civil society in Iraq. When the Baathists fled to Syria, they just may have taken the WMD with them. That chemical weapons were used in Syria should be no surprise to anyone who can connect the dots.

The 2006 election was about a few things, but the failure of the peace, as detailed by Bob  Woodward in a book that came out just before the election, had a big part in the loss (as did GOP corruption). There was a real push to hold the President (or the Vice President), responsible for the debacle, but Speaker Pelosi would not go there. Doing so would have criminalized foreign policy.

Where do we draw the line once we open Pandora's Box? Iran-Contra was played as a rogue operation by the National Security Advisor and his Deputy. By that time, Reagan's dementia was likely far enough advanced that he had no involvement - and no one asked whether Vice President Bush was in the loop. This has always vexed me. History may provide an answer when we are all dead or we may never know.

We currently have a similarly demented President, although he seems to be active when he thinks it is in his interest. His niece paints a picture in her book of a learning disabled sociopath. The real constitutional crisis is that the Executive Branch is operating without the active participation of the elected President. What role is Vice President Pence playing in the operation of the government? He should at least be held to account for not invoking the 25th Amendment when Robert Mueller was appointed. What did he know and when did he know it on Russia? Was the cover story of Flynn being fired for lying to Pence itself a cover story? Did anyone ask?

This is important because Cy Vance (as well as the D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine) are now empowered to investigate Citizen Trump. Does Trump v. Vance imply the end to the OLC Memo? How can it not if the President is not above the law? If A.G. Barr is really the bright shiny object distracting Trump while SDNY and DC do their work, is it time for them to now go forward, indict and arrest Trump (before Vance and Racine can beat them to it)?

If we are lucky as a nation, Leader McConnell will realize that he and his band of rats need to jump off the U.S.S. Trump, thus forcing him to resign or to have Pence bench Trump and become both Acting President and the nominee. In this case, Vice President Biden needs to shift his attentions from the incompetence and criminality of Trump to the lack of moral courage and mixed motives of Pence. Regardless, we must still address the issue of the criminality of the White House foreign policy.

Schiff should have followed the money trail, which in the Parnas and Fruman case has shown starts in Moscow, likely leads to Rudi and is alleged to fund the Trump Super PAC (thus benefiting much of the Senate impeachment jury). Let us hope this is not being saved as an October surprise. If McConnell moves Trump out of the way, it won't be of much use in going after Pence, who seems to have been mostly above the fray.

If McConnell fails to act, investigations must go on, which brings us back to Pandora and her box. How shall any Putin-Trump connection be played? Is it corruption or discretion. So far, only the corruption angle has been advanced. This has not worked with the GOP Senate or the electorate. If Trump is a traitor, it should be examined, but this will have implications for future presidents, including a President Schiff.

The question of whether Bin Laden was assassinated rather than being captured has criminal implications. Others have raised the question of the targeting of an American citizen who was part of Al Queda in the Arab Peninsula. Most come down on the side of presidential discretion. If we criminalize foreign policy, could it boomerang on our best president since Ike?

In my opinion, we need to open the box. Corruption is non-starter. It will not convince anyone in the Trump orbit that he did anything wrong. Unless Trump is pursued as a traitor - which I argue that he is - and the point is proven by a future DeutcheBank data dump on the Intelligence Committee - the nation will take a long time to heal. Not all Republican Trump supporters are his "fine people" who defend the Lost Cause. Continuing with Trump's criminality must lead to a knockout blow or it will be perceived as yet more partisanship, even if this means walking on the slippery slope.

Dems need to keep the option not to seat Trump

Because it is there job to execute the 20th Amendment by naming Vance Acting President, because Trump is ineligible to serve under 14th. Talk about it now! Maybe not the Harris campaign, but at least among surrogates.